Resources – Dean, Jacobson Financial Services, LLC – Financial Planning & Wealth Management

Weekly Market Commentary

Investor mood matters.

— Monday, February 9, 2026 —

Over the past month, we’ve seen five sharp stock market declines – and five rebounds, reported Charles Riley of Bloomberg. He pointed out that market declines often go hand-in-hand with a change in the economic outlook, but that’s not the case this... continue

It was a busy, busy week.

— Monday, February 2, 2026 —

If you just looked at the weekly return for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index, you might assume the United States stock market was relatively calm last week. It was not. A lot happened last week – and some news moved markets. Here’s a brief... continue

Geopolitics roiled financial markets.

— Tuesday, January 27, 2026 —

Just a couple of weeks ago, many analysts and asset managers expressed broad optimism about the potential performance of United States stock markets in 2026 – and the stock market started the year strong. “The S&P 500 closed at new records... continue

Investor appetite broadens.

— Tuesday, January 20, 2026 —

For a long time, investors have craved artificial intelligence (AI) related investments. Early in 2026, that’s begun to change. Paul R. La Monica of Barron’s reported: “Everywhere you look, stocks of all stripes are hitting new highs. That should... continue

A change in leadership.

— Monday, January 12, 2026 —

Last week, investors were presented with a stew of economic and policy developments. These included the surprising announcement that the United States would “run” Venezuela, disappointing jobs data, signs of improved consumer optimism, and a flurry of... continue

Lots of people are willing to predict what’s ahead.

— Monday, January 5, 2026 —

If the past is prologue, few will be accurate. You don’t have to look far to find an example. In 2023, a majority of economists agreed recession was ahead. They were wrong. Tyler Cowen of Bloomberg explained: “Last year at... continue

What is the most important principle of investing?

— Monday, December 29, 2025 —

People have different opinions, but these three tend to be at or near the top of the list: Have a plan for reaching your financial goals. Hold a diversified portfolio that reflects your goals, circumstances, and risk... continue

Happy holidays!

— Monday, December 22, 2025 —

Over the past year, financial markets reminded all of us that progress is rarely linear. As markets gyrated higher and lower, one truth remained constant – building wealth is the result of diversification, discipline, and thoughtful planning. An important aspect... continue

Last week, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) played “Would You Rather?”

— Monday, December 15, 2025 —

Would You Rather? is a board game that presents players with classic dilemmas and asks which options would be more palatable to them. For example, a game card might ask, Would you rather: Be able to run on... continue

It’s beginning to look a lot like a rate cut…

— Monday, December 8, 2025 —

A lot of information about the economy arrived last week. Some was delayed by the government shutdown. Some was right on time. Investors took a look and decided their holiday wish could come true. The Federal Reserve (Fed) might deliver... continue

A change of direction…

— Monday, December 1, 2025 —

Stock markets in the United States reversed course last week, with two major indices eking out gains for the month, reported Callum Keown of Barron’s. There were some other important changes last week that also may affect markets and investors. Here’s a... continue

Uncertainty abounds.

— Monday, November 24, 2025 —

Investors were skittish last week. Share prices jolted higher and lower amid concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) data center spending, upcoming Federal Reserve rate decisions, and the strength of consumer spending, reported Phil Serafino and Natalia... continue

It was another turbulent week.

— Monday, November 17, 2025 —

Investors cheered the end of the shutdown, pondered strong third-quarter earnings, and questioned the artificial intelligence (AI) spending spree. Some reduced their exposure to risky assets, while others bought the dip. Here are a few of the factors... continue

There were bearish undercurrents in the bullish sea.

— Monday, November 10, 2025 —

While there are many reasons to be optimistic about the long-term prospects for U.S. stocks, investor concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) spending and the possibility of a market correction roiled markets last... continue

Like walking on cobblestones…

— Tuesday, November 4, 2025 —

If you’ve ever walked down a road paved with cobblestones, you know the uneven surface can be challenging. Today, financial markets are paved with a variety of challenges and concerns. A recent survey from Charles Schwab found that its clients... continue

Stock markets celebrated, but bond markets were cautious.

— Monday, October 27, 2025 —

Last week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation for September was lower than economists had anticipated. Both headline and core inflation (the latter excludes volatile food and energy prices) rose 3.0 percent... continue

Filling the data void.

— Monday, October 13, 2025 —

Ancient Greek Philosopher Aristotle theorized that nature abhors a void and fills it. Anyone who has ever cleared a garden patch and delayed planting understands the idea. Before long, the empty ground is teeming with opportunistic plants. The government... continue

It was a stellar quarter for investors.

— Monday, October 6, 2025 —

The last three months have delivered stock market gains amid signs the economy might not be doing as well as previously thought. Here’s what we saw: Stock markets advanced Solid corporate earnings growth, enthusiasm for artificial... continue

The economy is all right.

— Tuesday, September 30, 2025 —

Last week, revised economic figures showed the United States economy grew faster from April through June than previously thought. The upward revision was primarily due to a revised estimate for consumer spending over the period, according to Connor Smith... continue

The bulls were running.

— Monday, September 22, 2025 —

Last week, investors rejoiced after the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds rate by a quarter percentage point. Major U.S. stock indexes set new record highs. FOMC projections for the future suggested more rate cuts could... continue

What are your expectations for inflation?

— Monday, September 15, 2025 —

Inflation occurs when the prices of goods and services increase. Last week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation moved modestly higher from July to August. Prices increased 2.9 percent, year over year, remaining above the... continue

Was the jobs report good news or bad news for the stock market?

— Monday, September 8, 2025 —

In financial markets, sometimes bad news is good. It looked like that might be the case last week. On Friday, the Employment Situation Summary was released. It showed U.S. businesses added just 22,000 jobs in August... continue

Will the bull market in stocks continue?

— Tuesday, September 2, 2025 —

There is always a diversity of opinion about whether stocks are headed higher or lower. Last week, investors were feeling more bearish than bullish about where the stock market may be headed over the next six months. The American... continue

Will the Fed lower rates?

— Monday, August 25, 2025 —

Last week, in a much-anticipated speech, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said, “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation…Nonetheless, with policy in... continue

Was inflation higher, lower, or steady?

— Monday, August 18, 2025 —

Perspective has a tremendous influence on how we perceive the world around us. If you saw any three-dimensional chalk drawings on sidewalks this summer, you understand how perspective affects understanding. When seen from one direction, a... continue

U.S. companies have been hitting it out of the park!

— Monday, August 11, 2025 —

Earnings season happens four times every year. It’s the period of time when publicly traded companies report how they performed during the previous quarter. So far, in aggregate, the companies in the Standard & Poor’s (S&P)... continue

Fast as a snail.

— Monday, August 4, 2025 —

In July, the weather in Norfolk, England, was perfectly rainy as Bilbo Sluggins won the World Snail Racing Championship with a time of two minutes and 11 seconds. Fans and competitors traveled from the United States, South Korea, and France for the competition... continue

How fast will an AI-powered economy grow?

— Tuesday, July 29, 2025 —

Global economic growth has not always been robust. Until the 1700s, economic growth averaged about 0.1 percent per year and was closely tied to population growth. “Bigger harvests allowed more mouths to be fed; more farmers allowed for... continue

This is not the inflation you’re looking for…

— Monday, July 21, 2025 —

In general, everyone who buys goods or services in the United States would prefer to see prices trend lower – and that’s what happened in the earlier part of this year. Over the last couple of months, though, inflation has begun to... continue

Are financial markets too complacent?

— Monday, July 14, 2025 —

In Aesop’s fable, The Boy Who Cried Wolf, a young shepherd repeatedly raises a false alarm. Eventually, the people in his village ignore his warnings. When a wolf appears, the villagers pay no attention to the boy’s cries, confident that... continue

Like riders on a giga coaster, investors experienced fear and exhilaration during the second quarte

— Monday, July 7, 2025 —

From April through June, investors rode markets up and down, banking through twists of news and events that had market moving potential. They swooped through the uncertain impact... continue

Major U.S. stock indexes raced to new highs last week.

— Monday, June 30, 2025 —

In a remarkable recovery from April’s double-digit downturn, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index raced to a new record high last week, and so did the Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq). Key drivers behind the ascent... continue

Investors are taking it all in stride.

— Monday, June 23, 2025 —

As Israel and Iran exchanged missile strikes last week, stock markets in the United States remained relatively steady, reported Michael Msika and Phil Serafino of Bloomberg. “On June 13th, as the bombs began to fly, S&P 500 futures fell by... continue

Investors had a lot to think about last week.

— Monday, June 16, 2025 —

A wealth of positive company and economic news lifted markets for much of last week. However, markets stumbled on news that Israel had launched an attack against Iran. Here’s what happened: U.S. - China negotiations were positive... continue

Employment was top of mind for financial markets last week.

— Monday, June 9, 2025 —

Economists and investors hoped May employment information would provide insight to the state of the United States economy, as well as clues about when the Federal Reserve (Fed) may lower the federal funds rate... continue

Consumers were feeling cautiously optimistic.

— Monday, June 2, 2025 —

When people talk about the United States economy, they’re usually referring to gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in here. For the first quarter of this year, U.S. GDP was nearly $30... continue

Nobody likes to balance the budget.

— Tuesday, May 27, 2025 —

Some pundits said Moody’s rating downgrade of U.S. Treasuries was a nothing burger. After all, the rating change didn’t provide investors with any new information. Moody’s was the third rating service to lower U.S. government bond ratings... continue

Last week, the U.S. stock market showed why it’s a good idea to stay invested through bouts of vola

— Monday, May 19, 2025 —

Major U.S. stock indices notched sizeable gains as investors celebrated a trade truce with China and better-than-expected inflation numbers, while brushing off a tepid consumer... continue

The winds of uncertainty are blowing, and the waters are choppy.

— Monday, May 12, 2025 —

In recent weeks, "United States stock markets saw steady gains, recovered from the April downturn as investors set aside uncertainty,” reported Connor Smith of Barron’s. Last week, investors became more cautious... continue

American companies did well in the first quarter.

— Monday, May 5, 2025 —

During earnings season, publicly held companies tell investors how they performed during the previous quarter with a particular focus on earnings, which reflect company profits. Currently, we’re more than halfway through earnings... continue

How’s everybody feeling?

— Monday, April 28, 2025 —

If you said, “Not great,” you’re not alone. There is an abundance of negative sentiment today. Many people – from consumers to small business owners, and from asset managers to investors – are feeling less optimistic. Here’s the data. The... continue

As the market turns...

— Monday, April 21, 2025 —

When investor preferences shift and money flows from one sector, industry, investment style or geographic region into another, it is called a market rotation. For years, stock markets in the United States have outperformed stock markets elsewhere. “The... continue

All eyes on the bond market.

— Monday, April 14, 2025 —

The scale of the tariffs introduced by the administration shocked investors, sparking a roller coaster of a week for stock markets. Last week, U.S. stocks: Rallied on a rumor. Fell when the rumor was recognized as a rumor. Rose when President... continue

“If you can keep your head when all about you are losing theirs…”

— Monday, April 7, 2025 —

The advice offered by Rudyard Kipling’s poem “If—” resonated last week. A sharp escalation in trade tensions sparked a stock market downturn despite news that the United States economy created far more jobs in... continue

Risk-on. Risk-off.

— Monday, March 31, 2025 —

If you read the financial press, you may have seen the terms “risk-on” and “risk-off”. When investing, there is a risk-return spectrum. Stocks typically have higher risk and higher return potential than high-quality bonds. High-quality bonds have lower... continue

The market whisperer…

— Monday, March 24, 2025 —

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) left the federal funds rate unchanged, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell soothed markets. He explained that conditions in the labor market were broadly in balance and inflation had eased significantly over the past two years... continue

A correction and a bounce.

— Monday, March 17, 2025 —

Last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index moved into correction territory. The Nasdaq Composite Index (Nasdaq) was already in a correction, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) was close, reported Paul R. LaMonica of Barron’s. A... continue

A difference of opinion.

— Tuesday, March 11, 2025 —

Broadly speaking, there are two types of investors: individual investors and institutional investors. Individual investors buy and sell investments to grow their personal wealth. This group of investors often works with financial advisors as they pursue... continue

What do weather and investing have in common?

— Monday, March 10, 2025 —

From 1991 to 2020, the average temperature of the United States was 54.7° Fahrenheit. Of course, that doesn’t mean the temperature in every state on every day was 54.7°F. The weather varied dramatically from place to place and... continue

Why are stock markets wary of tariffs?

— Tuesday, February 18, 2025 —

In two of the last three weeks, tariff announcements led to late week stock market sell-offs. Stocks quickly recovered lost value, but uncertainty about the administration’s trade policy and the potential impact of that policy on U.S... continue

Optimism headed south on Friday.

— Monday, February 10, 2025 —

After rising for most of the week, stock markets lost momentum last Friday as economic data raised doubts about further Federal Reserve rate cuts, reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. Late in the day, President Trump announced new tariffs would be... continue

Wait! What just happened?

— Monday, February 3, 2025 —

Last week, investors were inundated with market-moving data and news. Stock markets gyrated as investors tried to process everything that was occurring. Here’s some of what happened: China surprised the artificial intelligence industry The week got off... continue

What moves financial markets? The short answer is: Lots of things!

— Monday, January 27, 2025 —

Almost one hundred years ago, Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd wrote... “the market is a voting machine, whereon countless individuals register choices which are the product partly of reason and partly of... continue

As the markets turn.

— Tuesday, January 21, 2025 —

Last week, investors breathed a sigh of relief when the latest price data showed core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, moved lower in December. Investors has been worried because economists forecasted inflation would be stickier in... continue

Bond yields are rising—and they have investors’ attention.

— Monday, January 13, 2025 —

Last year, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) lowered the federal funds rate by one percent. (The federal funds rate is the interest rate the Fed charges banks. It influences other interest rates.) This shift in Fed... continue

Hello, 2025!

— Monday, January 6, 2025 —

As we head into a new year, it can be helpful to look back at the previous year—and 2024 was a doozy. Stocks in the United States delivered a double-double—posting double-digit gains for a second year in a row. That kind of performance is a relative rarity and has... continue

Consumers were more optimistic. Investors were less so.

— Monday, December 30, 2024 —

As we neared the end of 2024, U.S. consumers were feeling optimistic. Every month the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers conducts about 600 interviews with American households, asking interviewees about their personal... continue

But that’s not what I wanted!

— Monday, December 23, 2024 —

Last week, markets were about as happy as a toddler opening a gift they didn’t like. The first upsetting event followed the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s final policy meeting for 2024. The Fed met expectations by lowering its policy rate one-quarter of... continue

How high can U.S. stocks fly?

— Monday, December 16, 2024 —

The U.S. stock market has delivered exceptional performance over the past few years and remains on track to deliver solid returns in 2024. “It isn’t a secret that U.S. stocks have outperformed the rest of the world. Over the past decade, the S&P... continue

U.S. stocks thrive amid turmoil.

— Monday, December 9, 2024 —

The performance of the U.S. stock market is striking. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 closed at a record high for the 57th time this year, reported Rita Nazareth of Bloomberg. Here are some of the notable factors that sent stocks higher... continue

Not one, but two!

— Monday, December 2, 2024 —

United States stock markets are serving another cup of cheer this year. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index returned more than more than 24 percent in 2023. This year, it was up 26.5 percent through the end of November. It’s possible 2024 will end up in... continue

The post-election rally resumed.

— Monday, November 25, 2024 —

Investors shook off concerns about interest rates and inflation, and U.S. stocks climbed higher last week. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index gained every day last week, and the rally wasn’t limited to a few popular stocks: 425 of the... continue

The United States stock market changed course.

— Monday, November 18, 2024 —

Last week, the strength of the United States economy slowed investors’ roll. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell told business leaders in Dallas, Texas, that the performance of the United States economy has been “remarkably... continue

Stock markets celebrated the results of the presidential election. Bond markets were less enthusias

— Monday, November 11, 2024 —

Last week, United States stock markets rallied, and the U.S. dollar gained against other currencies, following the presidential election. The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s... continue

Are we witnessing an historic event?

— Monday, November 4, 2024 —

For an airplane or a spacecraft, a soft landing occurs when the vehicle... “touches the ground in a controlled and gradual way that does not damage it,” according to The Britannica Dictionary. For the American economy, a soft landing... continue

Financial markets appear to have pre-election jitters.

— Monday, October 28, 2024 —

The United States election is less than two weeks away. The candidates are neck and neck. The outcome remains uncertain. And expectations for volatility have been rising, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) finishing last... continue

Happy birthday!

— Monday, October 21, 2024 —

The bull market in stocks charged past its two-year birthday on October 12. “This unique bull market is still young relative to history and, for now, supported by relatively healthy breadth and broadening participation,” wrote Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon... continue

There was a lot to celebrate last week!

— Monday, October 14, 2024 —

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index closed above 5,800 for the first time—and that’s not all. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also notched a record high last week—and all three major U.S. stock indices ended the first full week of... continue

Living the realities of risk and reward.

— Monday, October 7, 2024 —

Asset allocation is important because it helps investors manage the risk and rewards of investing. In general, investments have different levels of risk and the potential return (or reward) for taking that level of risk is a higher return... continue

The S&P 500 Index hit a new all-time high last week.

— Monday, September 30, 2024 —

The S&P 500 has had quite a year. Despite a sharp downturn in August when investor confidence was ruffled by concerns about economic growth, the Index was up about 20 percent, year-to-date, at the end of last week... continue

Rates moved lower and stocks moved higher.

— Monday, September 23, 2024 —

In 2022, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) began raising interest rates as it battled high rates of inflation. That year prices rose 8 percent, as measured by the Consumer Price Index. In 2023, prices increased more slowly (4.1... continue

There was a lot of good news last week!

— Monday, September 16, 2024 —

Inflation continued to trend lower. The Consumer Price Index showed that inflation was 2.5 percent year over year (yoy) in August. That’s lower than economists had expected, and a significant decline from July’s 2.9 percent. Food and... continue

Investing in September can be like biting into a jelly doughnut and finding boiled cabbage—full of

— Monday, September 9, 2024 —

“History suggests September is the worst month of the year in terms of stock-market performance,” reported Isabel Wang of Morningstar. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index... continue

After gyrating wildly throughout the month, major U.S. stock indexes finished August higher.

— Tuesday, September 3, 2024 —

Despite a lot of uncertainty and some dramatic ups and downs, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index rose 2.3 percent in August, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.8 percent to... continue

The near future is more predictable than the distant future.

— Monday, August 26, 2024 —

Last year, the St. Louis Federal Reserve explored the accuracy of recession forecasts. They found that short-term predictions about whether there would be a recession in the subsequent quarter were fairly accurate... continue

The best week of the year?

— Monday, August 19, 2024 —

After two weeks of slow and jolting market performance, a bounty of positive news calmed investors and lifted stock markets higher last week. “Investors seem to have come to the realization that while the economy may be in fact slowing, the Federal... continue

Markets were gripped by August jitters.

— Monday, August 12, 2024 —

Last week, financial markets were volatile. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose to the highest level in four years before cooling down. “While spikes in the VIX often coincide with deep... continue

Stock markets swelled and dropped like waves at the Olympic surfing competition in Tahiti.

— Monday, August 5, 2024 —

It is often said that markets hate uncertainty. There was a lot of uncertainty last week, and it showed. “The technology-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index soared 3 on Wednesday and then retreated... continue

Americans may be witnessing something remarkable.

— Monday, July 29, 2024 —

Earlier this year, we had the relatively rare opportunity to view a total solar eclipse – when the moon passes between the sun and the Earth, blocking the sun completely – as it crossed numerous states. Now, we may see the... continue

The rate cut stars are aligning.

— Monday, July 22, 2024 —

For the last year, borrowing costs in the United States have remained relatively high as the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) waited for economic data to show that inflation was on track to reach the Fed’s two percent target. Now, we may finally be on... continue

Will deflation continue?

— Monday, July 15, 2024 —

In May, Pew Research asked Americans about the biggest problems facing our nation. The top three answers were: Inflation; The ability of Democrats and Republicans to work together; and The affordability of health care. Last week, there was some... continue

Despite some volatility, stock markets have been buoyant in 2024.

— Monday, July 8, 2024 —

Enthusiasm for artificial intelligence (AI), optimism about inflation, and expectations that the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will begin to lower rates this year have helped global and U.S. stock markets... continue

Some good news and some volatility.

— Monday, July 1, 2024 —

Last week was a mixed bag as investors weighed positive economic news against concerns that stock prices for some chipmakers may not be sustainable. Here are the highlights: Inflation slowed to zero. On Friday, one of the Fed’s favored... continue

Are we at an inflection point?

— Tuesday, June 25, 2024 —

The transition to renewable energy has been moving forward and may be reaching an inflection point. In 2023, global renewable energy capacity increased by almost 50 percent, reported the International Energy Agency (IEA). Renewable capacity reached... continue

Inflation is lower – and so are some retail prices.

— Monday, June 17, 2024 —

There was a lot of good news last week about the cost of products and services in the United States. First, inflation is slowing down. For the second month in a row, inflation slowed. Headline inflation was 3.3 percent year over... continue

Another record high for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index!

— Monday, June 10, 2024 —

Last week, the S&P 500 Index hit its 25th record high for 2024. Investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence helped drive the index to a new high. About 30 percent of the Index is information technology stocks. The S&P... continue

Overall, May was a good month for investors.

— Monday, June 3, 2024 —

The adage, “Sell in May and go away,” would have been poor advice last month. Major stock indices in the United States finished the month higher. Connor Smith of Barron’s reported: The Nasdaq Composite was up 6.9 percent for... continue

Perception versus reality.

— Wednesday, May 29, 2024 —

A recent Harris poll, conducted on behalf of The Guardian newspaper, found that there is some confusion about the state of the American economy and U.S. stock market performance. A significant proportion of the Americans who participated think the... continue

Reading the economic tea leaves.

— Monday, May 20, 2024 —

Tasseography practitioners read tea leaves to forecast the future. Some economic data serve a similar purpose. Policymakers, central bankers, economists, and investors look at leading economic indicators to forecast where the economy may be headed... continue

Higher rates are doing what they’re supposed to do

— Monday, May 13, 2024 —

Last week, Federal Reserve officials spoke about keeping the federal funds rate higher until it becomes clear that inflation will reach the Fed’s two percent target rate. While people typically don’t mind earning more... continue

What will the Federal Reserve do?

— Monday, May 6, 2024 —

Uncertainty about the direction and timing of Fed rate cuts is causing stock markets in the United States to charge and retreat. U.S. stocks rallied for five consecutive months (anticipating rate cuts early in 2024) before retreating in April... continue

The economy appears to be slowing down.

— Monday, April 29, 2024 —

Last week, many investors were focused on economic data. The Personal Consumption report offers information about Americans’ income and spending over the previous month. It includes one of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation... continue

Investors have been recalibrating their expectations.

— Monday, April 22, 2024 —

There is a lot going on in the world that could affect the value of financial markets – wars, tensions between major powers, a strong dollar, and rising oil prices – just to name a few. Last week, it was Federal Reserve... continue

Inflation and geopolitics and earnings. Oh, my!

— Monday, April 15, 2024 —

It was a rough week for stock markets. “The S&P 500 closed 1.5% lower on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite dipped 1.6%. Every S&P 500 sector closed lower—and just about 40 stocks in the index finished the day with gains,”... continue

The bull charged from October 2023 through March 2024. Last week, it took a breather.

— Tuesday, April 9, 2024 —

Optimistic may be the best word to describe the first quarter of 2024. From the start of the year, investors were confident that an economic soft landing in the United States was possible. The U.S... continue

What do dieters have in common with the Federal Reserve?

— Monday, April 1, 2024 —

If you’ve ever dieted, you may be familiar with the weight-loss plateau. Many people experience steady progress. The bathroom scale moves lower week by week – until it doesn’t – and that can be discouraging. The... continue

The central banks have spoken.

— Tuesday, March 26, 2024 —

No one expected the United States Federal Reserve to announce a rate change last week – and it didn’t. But Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments and the actions of other central banks led to new records being set in stock markets around the world... continue

Here’s the tea on stock markets and presidential elections.

— Monday, March 18, 2024 —

Last week, a slew of headlines mentioned stock market bubbles and frothy valuations. The implication was that markets might be headed lower because they’ve risen so high. Last Wednesday, Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters... continue

The week got off to a good start...

— Monday, March 11, 2024 —

In testimony before House and Senate committees, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell noted that prices had been falling and unemployment rates remained quite low. As a result, he expected the Fed to begin lowering the federal funds rate in... continue

The bull market is alive and well.

— Monday, March 4, 2024 —

“We know what investors are thinking,” reported Jacob Sonenshine of Barron’s. “The gains can keep coming, driven by an economy that is neither too hot nor too cold…The economy is growing, but only moderately, and the Federal Reserve can... continue

Optimism abounds!

— Monday, February 26, 2024 —

Enthusiasm for everything related to artificial intelligence (AI) drove a global stock market rally last week. Equity markets in the United States, Europe, and Japan hit all-time highs after a leading chipmaker reported better-than-expected earnings and an... continue

Don’t fight the Fed

— Tuesday, February 20, 2024 —

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central bank of the United States. A longstanding bit of investment wisdom is: Don’t fight the Fed. It means that investors should align their strategies with the Fed’s monetary policy. Economic growth is influenced by Fed... continue

China is out of favor with investors.

— Monday, February 12, 2024 —

For decades, China was among the fastest-growing economies in the world. Its real gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services it produces, grew by about nine percent a year, on average, from 1978 through 2022... continue

We’ve been hearing a lot about layoffs.

— Monday, February 5, 2024 —

Last week, the January 2024 Challenger Report found that employers based in the United States cut more than 82,000 jobs in January. That’s a lot. In December 2023, about 35,000 layoffs were announced. The January job cuts were concentrated... continue

Even better than expected!

— Wednesday, January 31, 2024 —

The United States economy is not performing the way anyone thought it would. Instead of tipping into a recession last year, it crushed expectations. Gross domestic product, which is the value of all goods and services produced in the country, expanded... continue

Are you feeling optimistic or pessimistic?

— Monday, January 22, 2024 —

Consumers are a force to be reckoned with – and we’re all consumers. We buy coats and tweezers, electricity and bread, screens and fishing poles. We download apps and games and educational materials. As consumers, we are vital to the... continue

Is inflation retreating?

— Tuesday, January 16, 2024 —

Last week, we received a lot of information about inflation. Some seemed to support the idea that inflation was sticky, meaning it wasn’t moving lower, while other data suggested inflation was in retreat. Here’s what we learned: Headline inflation... continue

And we’re off…to a slow start.

— Monday, January 8, 2024 —

Last week, investors appeared to suffer from a New Year’s hangover. The culprit was too much optimism. After its December meeting, with inflation easing and the U.S. economy remaining resilient, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) indicated that... continue

2023 was a big year for U.S. stocks.

— Tuesday, January 2, 2024 —

The story of 2023 has its roots in 2022, when the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index lost almost 19.5 percent amid rising inflation and aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. As 2022 came to a close, many on Wall Street predicted further pain... continue

If all you wanted for Christmas was two percent inflation, you’re in luck!

— Tuesday, December 26, 2023 —

Barring unforeseen events, it appears the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) is on the cusp of accomplishing a feat many thought impossible – reducing inflation without causing a recession. From March... continue

Have rates peaked?

— Monday, December 18, 2023 —

Last week, at its final policy meeting for 2023, the United States Federal Reserve indicated that rates may have peaked. After the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said: “As we approach the end of the year, it is natural to look back on the progress that has been... continue

Still exceeding expectations.

— Monday, December 11, 2023 —

Last week, the United States Treasury market rallied. Yields fell and bond prices rose as some bond market investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve will soon change course. Michael Mackenzie and Rich Miller of Bloomberg... continue

We’re cycling along.

— Monday, December 4, 2023 —

It’s easy to forget that economic activity tends to move in cycles. A full cycle, known as the business cycle, typically includes four stages: Contraction occurs when economic growth slows as an economy produces fewer goods and services. Economic... continue

In November, investors were more optimistic than consumers.

— Monday, November 27, 2023 —

At the start of November, investors were decidedly bearish. During the week of November 1, the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey found that about 50 percent of respondents were pessimistic about the prospects for stocks over... continue

Is it done? (We’re not talking about the turkey.)

— Monday, November 20, 2023 —

Last week, investors enthusiastically embraced the idea that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could be done raising rates – and that it might even begin to lower them. As conviction about the possibility of rate cuts increased, stock and... continue

Earnings grew in the third quarter.

— Monday, November 13, 2023 —

Four times a year, during earnings season, publicly traded companies report how well they performed during the previous quarter. The strength of corporate earnings – also known as bottom-line profits – is one of the economic indicators that... continue

Will there be a year-end rally?

— Monday, November 6, 2023 —

Last week, there was a lot of speculation about whether the United States will see a year-end stock market rally. Some say yes, and some say no. For example, at Bank of America, “Chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett broke from his usual... continue

The Mark Twain Effect?

— Monday, October 30, 2023 —

Historically, economic theory was based on the idea that financial decisions were grounded in rational thought. In recent years, behavioral economists have recognized that people don’t always behave rationally. In fact, research has found that investors... continue

Stay calm and consider the big picture.

— Monday, October 23, 2023 —

Today, investors have a myriad of worries that are creating tremendous uncertainty. A September Investopedia survey found investors are concerned about how their investments may be affected by: Inflation (59 percent), The upcoming... continue

Markets were resilient.

— Monday, October 16, 2023 —

Last week, investors had a lot to process – geopolitics, inflation, consumer sentiment, the possibility of government shutdown – and markets were volatile. Toward the end of the week, some investors were reassured when earnings season kicked off with... continue

Financial markets lost ground during the third quarter.

— Monday, October 9, 2023 —

While year-to-date returns for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index remain above the historic average, which was 10.24 percent, including dividends, from 1973 to 2022, the rally in U.S. stocks stalled during the third... continue

Inflation is slowing but consumers aren’t feeling it.

— Monday, October 2, 2023 —

In August, for the first time in two years, inflation (excluding volatile food and energy costs) dropped below four percent. Last week, one of the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s favored inflation measures – the Personal Consumption... continue

How high will they go?

— Monday, September 25, 2023 —

Just as the market anticipated, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) chose not to raise interest rates last week. However, Fed officials made it clear another rate increase might be necessary before the end of 2023 as continued economic strength... continue

Adding new ingredients to the economic blender.

— Monday, September 18, 2023 —

The performance of United States economy in 2023 has been as unexpected as a lentil-avocado-cinnamon smoothie – a tasty surprise. Last week, economic data suggested the Federal Reserve may need to do more to slow the economy. The... continue

All the work, work, work.

— Monday, September 11, 2023 —

2023 has been a remarkable year so far. It has, “confounded economists, humbled forecasters, and rewarded investors. Despite a rapid rise in interest rates, the U.S. economy continues to grow. Inflation has fallen – if not quite to desired levels –... continue

Lowering inflation.

— Tuesday, September 5, 2023 —

If you’ve ever waited in traffic while the center section of a bridge lifts to allow ships and sailboats to pass underneath, you may have noticed the enormous counterweight that lowers as the bridge moves higher. When the boats have passed, the counterweight... continue

Becalmed.

— Monday, August 28, 2023 —

The Chinese government’s zero-COVID policy took the wind from the sails of its economy. When the government finally ended the policy earlier this year, many economists anticipated that pent-up consumer demand would refill China’s economic sails, lifting the global... continue

Higher bond yields may be good for income investors – and not so good for stock markets.

— Monday, August 21, 2023 —

After more than a decade of near-zero interest rates, the “free money” era – a time when people and businesses could borrow money and repay it with very low (or no) interest – may be... continue

Consumer sentiment is a lagging indicator. It’s also a contrarian indicator.

— Monday, August 14, 2023 —

After rising sharply in June and July, consumer sentiment leveled off this month. The preliminary August reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was 71.2. That’s slightly below... continue

An unwelcome surprise.

— Monday, August 7, 2023 —

Last week, Fitch Ratings startled markets by lowering the credit rating of United States Treasuries from AAA to AA+. It was the second rating agency to downgrade U.S. Treasuries; Standard & Poor’s cut its rating to AA+ in 2011, reported Benjamin Purvis and... continue

Central bank palooza!

— Monday, July 31, 2023 —

While music lovers attended concerts and festivals across the United States, central banks had a lollapalooza of their own. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) led things off last Wednesday, followed by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, and the Bank of... continue

Better than expected.

— Monday, July 24, 2023 —

In January of this year, the Bloomberg’s MLIV Pulse survey collected and shared investors’ expectations for stock markets. Survey participants were generally a gloomy group. Seventy percent believed the United States stock market would move lower in... continue

Disinflation was in the air!

— Monday, July 17, 2023 —

To the great relief of the Federal Reserve, the American economy has been experiencing “disinflation,” which is a slowdown in the rate of inflation. For example, last week we learned that: Inflation fell to a two year low in June. The Consumer... continue

Markets are playing Federal Reserve (Fed) Clue.

— Monday, July 10, 2023 —

Last week, investors parsed the monthly Employment Situation Summary from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for clues about whether the Fed will raise the federal funds rate at its next meeting or leave the rate unchanged, reported Megan... continue

Showing remarkable resilience.

— Monday, July 3, 2023 —

Throughout the first half of 2023, the U.S. economy and financial markets proved to be resilient – and so did investors. U.S. stock markets moved higher amid enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and expectations that the Federal Reserve’s... continue

The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Express is traveling fast.

— Monday, June 26, 2023 —

Investors are enthusiastic about AI. Late last year, an AI research lab introduced a chatbot that could answer questions – and people were enthralled. Within two months of its introduction, more than 100 million people... continue

Rebalancing ahead!

— Tuesday, June 20, 2023 —

There is one decision all investors should make: how to allocate the money they’re investing. Asset allocation decisions are usually based on a myriad of factors: expected returns, potential volatility, and appetite for risk, among others. Periodically... continue

Leaping over the wall of worry.

— Monday, June 12, 2023 —

The “wall of worry” is an obstacle – or set of obstacles – that investors face. This year, the wall reached a considerable height as inflation, the War in Ukraine, United States-China tensions, slower earnings growth, the high cost of... continue

As Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise!”

— Monday, June 5, 2023 —

Gomer Pyle USMC was a popular American sitcom in the 1960s. It focused on a naïve, do-gooding auto mechanic from Mayberry RFD who joined the military. Gomer Pyle, the much-loved main character, was known for catchphrases such... continue

It’s a three-ring circus!

— Tuesday, May 30, 2023 —

For centuries people have embraced the circus. Enjoying the sticky fluff of cotton candy while elephants, clowns and trapeze artists perform in the spotlights. Merriam Webster Dictionary defines the experience as wild, confusing, engrossing and... continue

Investors aren’t happy, but stocks are up.

— Monday, May 22, 2023 —

If you ever participated in a fantasy football league, you may have experienced a run on a position during your draft. One person picks a kicker or defense mid-round and, suddenly, almost everyone rushes to follow suit. A similar occurrence... continue

Brace yourself! The debt ceiling standoff continues.

— Monday, May 15, 2023 —

Consumers aren’t optimistic. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low in May, dropping 9.1 percent month-to-month. Participants in the University of Michigan survey were: Less concerned about current economic... continue

The labor market just keeps growing…and growing…

— Monday, May 8, 2023 —

Last week, the April employment report for the United States arrived. It showed that unemployment dropped to the lowest level in more than 50 years – 3.4 percent. Other highlights included: The creation of 253,000 jobs in April... continue

Get real!

— Monday, May 1, 2023 —

Despite more than a year of aggressive Federal Reserve rate increases, the United States economy is still growing, albeit more slowly. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) – the value of all goods and services produced in the U.S. economy – grew by 5.1 percent over the... continue

Better than expected.

— Monday, April 24, 2023 —

It’s earnings season – the time when publicly traded companies report on how profitable they were during the first quarter of 2023. So far, reports suggest that companies listed on United States stock exchanges did better than many had anticipated. Almost... continue

Keep your eye on the big picture.

— Monday, April 17, 2023 —

Last week, there was nothing too surprising in economic and financial news. Inflation eased, as expected, although it remained above the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s target rate. The Treasury yield curve remained inverted with three-month Treasury... continue

Ambiguous images.

— Tuesday, April 11, 2023 —

Some illustrations are optical illusions. When two people view the picture, they may see completely different images. A good example is Rubin’s Vase. One viewer may see a vase, while another sees two faces. Current economic conditions can be interpreted in... continue

Perhaps we should call this a pushmi-pullyu market.

— Monday, April 3, 2023 —

The first quarter of 2023 brought Dr. Dolittle’s pushmi-pullyu – the rarest animal of all – to mind. It is the offspring of goat-antelopes and unicorns, and has a head at each end of its body. The pushmi-pullyu’s unusual... continue

What’s your jam?

— Monday, March 27, 2023 —

When you think of fun, are you running an Arctic marathon? Biking to your favorite burger place? Gaming with friends online? Each has inherent risk: Polar bears and hypothermia, traffic and flat tires, and viruses and identity theft. Those who enjoy these... continue

Unknowns and uncertainty

— Monday, March 20, 2023 —

Financial markets were volatile last week as investors parsed the risks around bank closures, central banks offered additional protections for depositors, and regulators took a harder look at bank balance sheets. “For much of last year, volatility was... continue

Thrown for a loop....

— Monday, March 13, 2023 —

Early last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent. If economic data continues to come in hot, he said, then it’s likely the Fed will raise rates higher than expected and keep them... continue

Sibling discord.

— Monday, March 6, 2023 —

Stocks and bonds are two of the better-known asset classes in the family of potential investments. Last week, they were in opposition. Bond yields have been moving higher in anticipation of the Federal Reserve raising rates again. For a while last week, every... continue

Is it good news or bad news?

— Monday, February 27, 2023 —

The answer depends on your perspective. Last week, we learned that: Consumer sentiment is at its highest level in more than a year. Consumers are feeling better about current economic conditions and the future. That said, the University of Michigan... continue

Brace for a bumpy ride.

— Tuesday, February 21, 2023 —

There were some unwelcome surprises in last week’s economic data that caused markets to reassess expectations for 2023. For example: Inflation didn’t fall as fast as expected. Last week, the Consumer Price Index showed inflation rose 6.4 percent... continue

This time may be different...or it may not be.

— Monday, February 13, 2023 —

There has been a lot of speculation about how the Federal Reserve’s policies will affect the United States economy. Economists have differing opinions about whether the country is headed for: A recession, which occurs when the... continue

What do Samuel Clemens (a.k.a. Mark Twain) and the current economic expansion have in common?

— Monday, February 6, 2023 —

Author and humorist Twain was prematurely reported to be dead. It first happened in 1897. Twain was on a speaking tour in London when rumors that he had fallen ill and died began to... continue

The vicious cycle of inflation.

— Monday, January 30, 2023 —

Last week, we learned that pay increases at central banks in many parts of the world won’t keep pace with inflation. As a result, their employees may not be able to maintain the standards of living they had before inflation began rising. For... continue

“It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days ...

— Monday, January 23, 2023 —

...because the consensus seems to change so quickly,” opined Ed Yardeni via LinkedIn last week. We’ve certainly seen a shift in investors’ preferences during the first few weeks of this year. Despite widespread... continue

Bullish or Bearish?

— Tuesday, January 17, 2023 —

After last year’s geopolitical turmoil, economic malaise, and tumultuous stock market decline, many financial professionals – from investors to asset managers – have strong opinions about what will happen in 2023. Some are bullish. While individual... continue

It’s being called the “Goldilocks” report.

— Monday, January 9, 2023 —

Last Friday, we learned that demand for workers in the United States remained strong in 2022. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.5 percent in December. (It was 3.7 percent in November.) That brought U.S. unemployment back to where it was... continue

It’s finally over.

— Tuesday, January 3, 2023 —

2022 was a dismal year for financial markets. Major United States stock indices moved lower, trimming or eliminating the previous year’s gains. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which had gained about 27 percent in 2021, dropped almost 20 percent in... continue

What a year!

— Tuesday, December 27, 2022 —

In some ways, it feels as though we lived through several years in 2022. The onslaught of events included, “The first major European war since the 1990s, unprecedented sanctions, energy-price mayhem, bail-outs, global interest rates rising at their fastest pace in... continue

Bad news is bad news, once again.

— Monday, December 19, 2022 —

For months, investors have cheered bad economic news. When the United States economy showed signs of weakness, stock markets often reflected investor enthusiasm. The thinking was that bad economic news would persuade the Federal Reserve to slow the... continue

What comes next?

— Monday, December 12, 2022 —

The U.S. stock market tends to be a forward-looking vehicle. Investors make decisions today based on what they think may be ahead for the economy, and how economic change may affect the companies they’re considering for investment. Currently, key questions... continue

What will it take to slow this economy down?

— Monday, December 5, 2022 —

In 2001, railway workers slowed a runaway train in Ohio by latching a second engine to the back of the locomotive and applying the brakes. In all, the train traveled sixty-six miles over two hours, decelerating from a maximum speed of... continue

There was a shift in the winds of monetary policy.

— Monday, November 28, 2022 —

Last week, it became clear the Federal Reserve (Fed) had softened its hawkish stance. The minutes of the central bank’s November policy meeting indicated the Fed was likely to slow the pace of rate hikes soon. There was a... continue

Thanksgiving and football go together like turkey and stuffing.

— Monday, November 21, 2022 —

For some families, though, this year may be more like a turducken, stuffed with American football and the sport the rest of the world knows as football (soccer). The men’s World Cup, which is played every four years... continue

Last week was remarkable for many reasons.

— Monday, November 14, 2022 —

One reason is that sky watchers around the world had an opportunity to see a total lunar eclipse. The moon, Earth and sun aligned, causing the moon to appear crimson. We won’t see another total lunar eclipse for three years, reported... continue

It’s the lag time.

— Monday, November 7, 2022 —

To no one’s surprise, the Federal Reserve continued to battle inflation last week, raising the federal funds rate for the fourth time this year, reported Claire Ballentine of Bloomberg. The Fed is making borrowing more expensive to dampen demand for goods... continue

Some companies are doing better than others – a lot better.

— Monday, October 31, 2022 —

It’s earnings season; the time when companies share how well they performed during the previous quarter. Earnings reports are important because they provide information about a company’s financial health. Shareholders... continue

Markets turned – again.

— Monday, October 24, 2022 —

Markets continue to be volatile. Last week, stocks headed north. Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s reported the change of direction reflected investors’ desire for the market to finally hit bottom. He may be right, but corporate earnings suggest we are not... continue

We're not there yet.

— Monday, October 17, 2022 —

Investors are understandably eager for the stock market to hit bottom. Some hoped it happened last week, but it did not. Despite the Fed’s rate hikes, last week the Consumer Price Index showed the annual rate for headline inflation was 8.2 percent in... continue

Bah humbug!

— Monday, October 10, 2022 —

Last week, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied oil producers like Russia, chose to cut production by two million barrels a day. The stated goal is to keep crude oil prices above $90 a barrel. The production cut, which... continue

The third quarter marked a change in attitude.

— Monday, October 3, 2022 —

So far, 2022 has been a tough year for investing. We’ve experienced an unusual phenomenon – the simultaneous decline of stock and bond markets. Throughout the third quarter, investors’ concerns focused on global instability... continue

Central bank tightening sparked recession fears.

— Monday, September 26, 2022 —

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds rate for the fifth time this year. During 2022, the Fed has lifted its benchmark rate from near zero to 3.12 percent. Fed policymakers indicated that they expect to raise... continue

It’s open to interpretation.

— Monday, September 19, 2022 —

Jackson Pollock was an action painter. He poured, dropped, and dripped paint onto horizontal canvases. Some people look at his work and wonder why it’s highly valued. Others find deep meaning in the paintings. For instance, Pollock’s Convergence is... continue

Central banks are hawkish. Stocks popped higher, anyway.

— Monday, September 12, 2022 —

Last week, despite signs that inflation is slowing, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized their commitment to tightening monetary policy to lower inflation. Several indicated they anticipate a third consecutive rate... continue

You may have heard this one: Don’t fight the Fed.

— Tuesday, September 6, 2022 —

The Fed is the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States. Among other things, the Fed influences monetary conditions in pursuit of price stability and full employment. As we’ve seen recently – with unemployment low and inflation... continue

Markets were tuned to the signals coming from Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

— Monday, August 29, 2022 —

During World War II, United States armed forces often relied on high-powered radio sets to communicate. When determining whether transmissions were garbled by static or obscured by the sounds of battle, the sender... continue

Is this a bear market rally or a new bull market?

— Monday, August 22, 2022 —

Investment professionals are in the middle of a heated debate. Since mid-June, United States stock markets have moved higher, regaining about $7 trillion as many investors who had sold shares during the first half of the year began... continue

Rally caps were waving.

— Monday, August 15, 2022 —

In recent weeks, investors have embraced the idea that economic data will persuade the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes. Last week’s inflation data fanned their enthusiasm. The big news was that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which... continue

The strength of the United States economy continues to surprise.

— Monday, August 8, 2022 —

If you have ever been camping, you may have banked your campfire by covering the hot coals with ash. It’s a process that keeps the coals burning low so the fire can be easily rekindled. The U.S. Federal Reserve has... continue

Investors thought they heard a dovish note from the Federal Reserve and markets rallied.

— Monday, August 1, 2022 —

Last week, we learned from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that economic growth in the United States slowed for the second consecutive quarter. Economic growth is measured by gross... continue

A lot of people are worried that a recession may be in our future.

— Monday, July 25, 2022 —

Some think it may already be here. Unemployment is low (3.6 percent), and inflation is high (9.1 percent). Both tend to occur when an economy is experiencing strong growth. That makes it difficult to believe the... continue

Nobody is happy, but Americans are feeling more optimistic.

— Monday, July 18, 2022 —

Last week, headlines blasted the new inflation numbers. Prices were up more than 9% year-over-year in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). When you dig into the numbers, energy... continue

Rising inflation is a bit like a child throwing a temper tantrum in the grocery store.

— Monday, July 11, 2022 —

The red-faced parent, in this case the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), tries to calm the child. Sometimes, it works and the child calms down (soft landing). Other times, the child won’t settle... continue

The first six months of 2022 have earned a place in history books.

— Tuesday, July 5, 2022 —

2022 is likely to become part of the lore passed from generation to generation. Stories will be told about this bear market, as well as the remarkable political and social events that have occurred in the United... continue

Last week, bad news was good news.

— Monday, June 27, 2022 —

Consumers were feeling blue in June, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. The survey scored sentiment at 50, which was the lowest level on record. Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu reported that 79 percent of... continue

The fight against inflation intensified.

— Tuesday, June 21, 2022 —

Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a message that it is serious about fighting inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lifted the federal funds target rate by 0.75 percentage points. The fed funds rate is now 1.50... continue

Inflation is proving to be far more tenacious than markets had hoped.

— Monday, June 13, 2022 —

The idea that inflation peaked in March was put to rest last week when the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation accelerated in May. Overall, prices were up 8.6 percent last month, an increase from... continue

How strong is the United States economy?

— Monday, June 6, 2022 —

That’s the question investors were mulling after last week’s jobs report. More jobs were created in May than economists expected, and the labor force participation rate rose, meaning even more people are returning to work. Overall, the... continue

Investors reassessed and markets bounced.

— Tuesday, May 31, 2022 —

Last week, major U.S. stock indices moved higher for the first time in weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.2 percent, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up 6.6 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 6.9 percent, reported... continue

On the fear and greed cycle.

— Monday, May 23, 2022 —

One of the most challenging times for investors is a market downturn. Whether markets are experiencing a correction or a bear market, it’s really disturbing to watch the value of your savings and investments decline. Last week, the CNN Business Fear... continue

Living with a bear.

— Monday, May 16, 2022 —

On the survival series “Alone,” the tension ratchets higher whenever participants encounter bears. Some participants live warily alongside bears, while others tap out. A similar thing happens among investors when they encounter a bear market. What is a... continue

There is a lot of uncertainty in financial markets – and markets hate uncertainty.

— Monday, May 9, 2022 —

In recent weeks, economic and financial market data have been telling different stories – and that makes it tough for investors to know where the United States economy is headed. Since stock markets... continue

Correction and contraction....

— Monday, May 2, 2022 —

Investing during 2022 has been like running a forest trail and having unexpected obstacles appear every so often – a fallen tree, a swarm of biting flies, a bear with cubs – you get the idea. To-date, economic, coronavirus-related, and geopolitical... continue

The Federal Reserve’s Ice Bucket Challenge…

— Monday, April 25, 2022 —

Remember a few years ago when people raised money for charity by challenging others to pour buckets of icy water over their heads? Last week, the Federal Reserve poured a bucket of ice water over the United States stock market. Randall W... continue

Here’s a riddle: How can inflation be 8.5 percent and 6.5 percent at the same time?

— Monday, April 18, 2022 —

The answer is that it depends on how you measure it. Determining how quickly prices are rising or falling – and where they may be headed in the future – is not simple. In the... continue

The first quarter of 2022 was jam-packed with volatility-inducing events

— Monday, April 11, 2022 —

Rising inflation, war in Ukraine, rising interest rates, sanctions on Russia, and a new COVID-19 outbreak in China. Here’s a brief review of what happened during: Inflation continued to rise. At the... continue

Checking in on the Federal Reserve.

— Monday, April 4, 2022 —

Among other things, Congress asks the Federal Reserve to use its tools to promote price stability and maximum employment. Last week, economic data provided information about both. Inflation continued to increase Price stability means... continue

Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it.

— Monday, March 28, 2022 —

In early March, almost two-thirds of Americans who participated in a Nationwide Retirement Institute survey said the Federal Reserve (Fed) should take more aggressive action on inflation. The next week, the Federal Open Market... continue

Markets were reassured by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s actions last week.

— Monday, March 21, 2022 —

The FOMC met on March 16 and did exactly what most people expected them to do. They raised the federal funds target rate by a quarter point. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the Fed... continue

Investor optimism is quite low.

— Monday, March 14, 2022 —

Investor optimism is quite low. In just two weeks, the war in Ukraine has changed the status of 1.3 million people – approximately the number of people who live in Philadelphia or Phoenix – from citizen to refugee, reported Rachel Pannett and... continue

The world is adapting to a changing reality.

— Monday, March 7, 2022 —

As the war in Ukraine intensified last week, financial markets grappled with uncertainty. “After watching financial markets gyrate from hour to hour as Russia attacked Ukraine, I was getting dizzy myself,” reported Jeff Sommer of... continue

Last week, Russia invaded Ukraine.

— Tuesday, March 1, 2022 —

Last week, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision ignited the biggest military conflict in Europe since World War II. The war is already exacting a terrible human toll. It has also disrupted global markets and... continue

Investors’ appetite for risk diminished as the Russian threat to Ukraine intensified.

— Tuesday, February 22, 2022 —

Volatility was high last week as investors guessed and second-guessed how markets would react if Russia invaded Ukraine and sanctions were imposed on Russia. They also wondered what would happen... continue

Why did stock markets in the United States finish the week lower?

— Monday, February 14, 2022 —

If this were Jeopardy, acceptable answers to that question might include: Rising inflation. Major U.S. stock indices were trending higher until the Consumer Price Index (CPI) Summary showed inflation at a... continue

A rosy view through the rearview mirror.

— Monday, February 7, 2022 —

To say that economists did not have great expectations for the January employment report might be understating their position. It was widely believed that the spread of the COVID-19 Omicron variant would translate into a dismal jobs... continue

Last week, the January stock market decline was interrupted by a Friday afternoon rally.

— Monday, January 31, 2022 —

“The S&P 500 rose 2.4 percent, its biggest one-day jump since June 2020, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq composite rose 3.1 percent. Friday’s gain snapped a three-day streak of losses and... continue

When is a barometer not a barometer?

— Monday, January 24, 2022 —

It’s widely recognized that people do not make perfect financial decisions. In fact, many investors rely on mental shortcuts when asked to make complex decisions. That may be why there are theories that correlate stock market performance to... continue

Is the economy doing well, or not?

— Tuesday, January 18, 2022 —

If you skimmed the headlines last week, you may have seen that retail sales – the purchases we make from stores in-person or online – declined 1.9 percent in December. The statistic may have raised questions about the strength of the economy... continue

Here’s a little story about a group called the Fed…

— Monday, January 10, 2022 —

In the 1950’s, then Fed Chair William McChesney Martin described the Federal Reserve as “the chaperone who has ordered the punch bowl removed just when the party was really warming up.” In 2020, the opposite was true... continue

2021 was a fizzing mints-in-soda kind of year.

— Monday, January 3, 2022 —

Everything seemed to shoot higher – from COVID-19 cases and vaccinations to economic growth and global stock markets. Everything except for optimism. As the year came to an end, a CBS News poll found that 40 percent of Americans... continue

Investors were feeling bullish.

— Monday, December 27, 2021 —

Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index closed at a record high for the 68th time this year. That’s the second-highest number of record closes in a single year. The highest number occurred during 1995, when the S&P 500 had 77 record... continue

Stock and bond markets diverged.

— Monday, December 20, 2021 —

Last week, the Bank of England surprised markets with a rate hike, its first in three years, and the Bank of Mexico raised rates more than expected. Both cited persistent inflation as the reason for the increases, reported Carla Mozée of Markets... continue

Inflation met expectations.

— Monday, December 13, 2021 —

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) last week, it showed that inflation was at levels last seen in 1982. In November, prices were up 0.8 percent month-to-month and 6.8 percent year-to-year. “It was the blowout... continue

Investors look to the future.

— Monday, December 6, 2021 —

Last week, employment and manufacturing data confirmed that the United States economy continued to strengthen in November, but positive economic news was overshadowed by investors’ concerns about the spread of coronavirus and Federal Reserve... continue

COVID-19 strikes again.

— Monday, November 29, 2021 —

Coronavirus cases have been on the rise in Europe, climbing from about 700,000 new cases a week in September to 2.6 million a week in November, reported Richard Pérez-Peña and Jason Horowitz of the New York Times. As Thanksgiving approached, there was... continue

Thinking about the possibilities.

— Monday, November 22, 2021 —

The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index finished last week slightly higher and has gained about 6 percent during the past 25 days; however, investors have curbed their enthusiasm. The S&P 500 hasn’t experienced a move of one percent or more in... continue

Economists like to joke that inflation is just right when no one notices it.

— Monday, November 15, 2021 —

Last week, investors noticed it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is a measure of inflation, rose 0.9 percent in October and 6.2 percent over the last 12 months, according to the Bureau of Labor... continue

Feeling bullish…

— Monday, November 8, 2021 —

Investor bullishness ticked higher last week on all four investor sentiment gauges tracked by Barron’s. Investor optimism may have been fanned by positive financial and economic news. For example, last week: The jobs report was better than expected. Last... continue

The road to recovery is slow and bumpy.

— Tuesday, November 2, 2021 —

Last week, we learned that economic growth slowed in the third quarter as a new wave of COVID-19 surged across the United States, reported The Bureau of Economic Analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and... continue

It’s MESSI!

— Wednesday, October 27, 2021 —

No, this commentary is not about Lionel Messi, the Argentine soccer phenom who is widely regarded one of the greatest footballers of all time. However, it is about something that economists say may be as rare as Messi’s talent: Moderating Expansion with Sticky... continue

Don’t get spooked!

— Monday, October 18, 2021 —

Barron’s Big Money Poll is an exclusive survey of market sentiment among professional investors. Last week, Nicholas Jasinski reported on 2021’s findings: “America’s money managers are optimistic about the long-term outlook for the economy, the financial... continue

The word “jouncy” ...

— Monday, October 11, 2021 —

...may have started life as a combination of bouncy and jolting – and it’s a pretty good way to describe what happened to stock markets last week. The week started with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index experiencing daily gains and losses of about one... continue

September strikes again…

— Monday, October 4, 2021 —

If you look back over the last 20 years, September has been the worst performing month for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, according to Nasdaq. This year, the S&P 500 dropped 4.8 percent in September. That wasn’t enough to wipe out gains from earlier... continue

Central banks have a lot of influence on investors, markets and economies.

— Monday, September 27, 2021 —

For the last year or so, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing $120 billion of bonds every month to ensure United States markets remained liquid and interest rates remained low during the pandemic. Last... continue

In recent weeks ...

— Monday, September 20, 2021 —

...bullish sentiment has drifted lower like sediment settling after a storm. Every month, Bank of America (BofA) surveys global asset managers. The most recent survey, which was conducted in early September, showed that fewer managers remain optimistic about... continue

The Delta variant could take a toll on economic growth.

— Monday, September 13, 2021 —

There was some good news last week. The 7-day moving average of COVID-19 cases in the United States declined. The bad news was that the rate of infection remained about 99 percent higher than it was one year ago. As Delta... continue

Stagflation isn’t trending...

— Tuesday, September 7, 2021 —

...but it was mentioned in quite a few headlines last week. Stagflation is a portmanteau of ‘stagnation’ and ‘inflation.’ It occurs when a country experiences slow economic growth along with high inflation and high unemployment. In the United... continue

“Raise your words, not your voice...

— Monday, August 30, 2021 —

...it is rain that grows flowers, not thunder,” advised the Persian poet Rumi. Last week, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s words helped grow the week’s equity market returns. In his speech at the Economic Policy Symposium in... continue

Markets were shaken last week ...

— Monday, August 23, 2021 —

...by a potent cocktail of central bank tapering and economic growth concerns mixed with coronavirus and a splash of the new Chinese privacy law. On Wednesday, the minutes of the United States Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee Meeting were... continue

What is the most important...

— Monday, August 16, 2021 —

driver of economic growth in the United States? The most common way to measure economic output is Gross Domestic Product or GDP. It’s the value of all goods and services produced in our country over a specific period of time. GDP is a combination of... continue

Are we there yet?

— Monday, August 9, 2021 —

For months, investors have wondered when the Federal Reserve (Fed) might begin to “normalize” its policies, a process that will eventually lead to higher interest rates. Last week, a better-than-expected unemployment report – showing a gain of almost a... continue

The Chinese dragon cast a shadow...

— Monday, August 2, 2021 —

...over free trade and foreign investment last week. For decades, investors have recognized the investment potential of China. Since the country opened to foreign trade and investment in 1979, its economy has grown rapidly. Through 2018, its... continue

Shortest ever.

— Monday, July 26, 2021 —

Last week, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) finally announced the official dates for the recession that occurred in 2020. Economic activity peaked in February 2020 and bottomed in April 2020. That makes the pandemic recession the shortest in American... continue

The term “peak growth”...

— Monday, July 19, 2021 —

...has become almost as popular as the comedy show Ted Lasso. Peak growth is a catchphrase with the potential to mislead. When the term is applied to the U.S. economy, it does not mean the United States economy has reached the pinnacle of growth and... continue

There was a gapers’ block ...

— Monday, July 12, 2021 —

...in financial markets last week as equity investors slowed to see what the United States Treasury bond market was up to. U.S. Treasury bonds rallied last week. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped from 1.43 percent at the start of the week to 1.27... continue

The world is about halfway back to normal.

— Tuesday, July 6, 2021 —

The Economist developed the Global Normalcy Index (GNI) to measure the post-pandemic return to normal. In March 2020, the GNI was 35 overall, with 100 being the normal pre-pandemic level. At the end of the second quarter, the worldwide... continue

What begins with the letter “I”?

— Monday, June 28, 2021 —

Infrastructure is essential and sometimes taken for granted. Pipes carry drinking water to our homes, offices, and healthcare facilities, and carry away sewage and wastewater. Highways, airports, railroads, waterways, roads, and bridges make... continue

Is that a hawk?

— Monday, June 21, 2021 —

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) met last week. They get together eight times a year to review current economic and financial conditions, assess risks to price stability and economic growth, and adjust monetary policy accordingly. When the Federal... continue

It’s transitory. It’s not transitory. It’s transitory. It’s not transitory.

— Monday, June 14, 2021 —

Media analysts were plucking the inflation daisy petals last week. On Thursday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index Summary, which showed prices were up 5 percent... continue

Pulling the economy out of the shed.

— Monday, June 7, 2021 —

If you’ve ever stored tools or machinery in a shed or garage for an extended period of time, you know they often need some care and repair to function properly. The same appears to be true of the pandemic economy. Economic growth in the... continue

Are we at a tipping point?

— Tuesday, June 1, 2021 —

One side effect of the pandemic was a collapse in demand for oil, which led to “the largest revision to the value of the oil industry’s assets in at least a decade,” reported Collin Eaton and Sarah McFarlane of The Wall Street Journal. Last week... continue

What do markets hate?

— Monday, May 24, 2021 —

They hate uncertainty, and recently there has been plenty of it. Some of the questions plaguing economists and pundits include: Why aren’t people returning to work? Americans, like people in other parts of the world, have not been rejoining the... continue

Uncle Inflation is here. Will he overstay his welcome?

— Monday, May 17, 2021 —

Ever since the financial crisis, central banks have pursued expansionary monetary policies to encourage reflation and avoid deflation. Well, it’s taken some time, but inflation is finally here. Last week, major stock indices... continue

Like a gender reveal gone wrong ...

— Monday, May 10, 2021 —

...last week's employment report delivered an unexpected surprise. Economists estimated 975,000 new jobs would be created in April. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported there were just 266,000. That’s a big... continue

It’s Spring and economic recovery is in the air.

— Monday, May 3, 2021 —

Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the U.S. economy grew at a 6.4 percent annualized rate for the first three months of 2021. While that’s good news for companies and workers, asset managers are checking their... continue

It wasn’t just the price of pork chops.

— Monday, April 26, 2021 —

Last week, as investors weighed the news, strong corporate earnings were offset by higher grocery prices and rising numbers of global coronavirus cases. Solid corporate earnings weighed favorably. So far, 25 percent of the companies in... continue

Where are Treasury bonds going?

— Monday, April 19, 2021 —

The direction of bond yields is influenced by investors’ expectations for economic growth, among other factors. When economic growth is expected to weaken, bond yields tend to move lower. When economic growth is expected to strengthen, bond yields... continue

Investors didn’t stumble over inflation last week. Why not?

— Monday, April 12, 2021 —

Inflation – rising prices of goods and services – can be measured in a variety of ways. For example, the Consumer Price Index considers changes in the amount consumers pay for goods and services – a bag of carrots, a... continue

Zoom, zoom, zoom.

— Monday, April 5, 2021 —

Big economies tend to recover from recessions about as quickly as semi-trucks accelerate from stop lights. In other words, recovery tends to be slow. That may not be the case this time. “Everything in this economic cycle is happening at great speed. That is in... continue

Last week, unemployment claims were looking good and consumers were feeling good.

— Monday, March 29, 2021 —

The number of Americans applying for first-time unemployment benefits declined. Just 684,000 people filed claims during the week of March 20, down 97,000 from the week before, according to last... continue

What are professional asset managers thinking?

— Monday, March 22, 2021 —

Bank of America recently published the results of its March global asset managers’ survey, which polls 220 professional investors responsible for about $630 billion in assets, reported Julia La Roche of Yahoo! Finance. Many of... continue

Investors had a lot to be enthusiastic about last week.

— Monday, March 15, 2021 —

Major stock indices in the United States soared, finishing the week higher and setting new records along the way, reported Al Root of Barron’s. There was plenty of good news to fuel investor optimism: The $1.9 trillion... continue

Neanderthal DNA may make people ...

— Monday, March 8, 2021 —

...more – or less – susceptible to COVID-19, reported The Economist. It all depends on whether you have the genes and, if you do, which DNA string you inherited. No matter what your gene sequence looks like, vaccines can help fight the virus... continue

Students of financial markets may have noted a historically unusual event last week.

— Monday, March 1, 2021 —

On Thursday, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notes briefly matched the dividend yield for the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index. This type of convergence is uncommon. In normal times, the... continue

It’s a contrarian’s dream come true.

— Monday, February 22, 2021 —

Contrarian investors like to buck the trend. They buy when other investors are selling and sell when others are buying. Last week, Bank of America (BofA) delivered a contrarian’s dream. BofA’s monthly survey of 225 global asset managers, who... continue

It’s not a black diamond ski run yet...

— Tuesday, February 9, 2021 —

...but the yield curve for U.S. Treasuries is steeper than it has been in a while. A yield curve is the line on a graph showing yields for different maturities of bonds. Yield curves provide insight to bond investors’ perceptions about the... continue

They say people watching the same event often see different things.

— Monday, February 1, 2021 —

That seems to have been the case last week when share prices of a few companies experienced tremendous volatility. Some cast the events as a David vs. Goliath morality tale, however, Michael Mackenzie of... continue

Last week, as COVID-19 vaccination efforts continued...

— Monday, January 25, 2021 —

...there was speculation about stock market corrections and asset bubbles. On Sunday morning, Bloomberg reported 63 million doses of the coronavirus vaccine had been administered across 56 countries. In the United States, 21.1... continue

Investors were rocked by economic data showing the economy hit the brakes hard in December.

— Wednesday, January 20, 2021 —

Last week, major U.S. stock indices decelerated as investors gaped at the economic damage caused by the rising number of coronavirus cases around the world. There have been more than two... continue

The event at the United States Capitol building had a resounding impact around the world, but it di

— Monday, January 11, 2021 —

Last week, investors weighed the violent disruption of America’s 2020 presidential election process against the outcome of the Senate runoff in Georgia, and decided the latter... continue

Last week was the cherry on top of a turbulent year for investors.

— Monday, January 4, 2021 —

After the $900 billion fiscal stimulus bill was signed on Sunday, major U.S. stock indices moved higher. The Washington Post reported, “The S&P 500-stock index, the most widely watched gauge, is finishing the... continue

U.S. stock markets remained calm as a fresh chapter opened in the coronavirus stimulus saga last we

— Monday, December 28, 2020 —

Congress managed to cobble together a new stimulus package that was acceptable to both sides and pass it. The proposed package included money to help states distribute vaccines, an... continue

Congress is at $900 billion, will they hear $1.4 trillion...

— Monday, December 21, 2020 —

Congress is at $900 billion, will they hear $1.4 trillion, $1.4 trillion, governments at $900 billion, who’ll go $1.4 trillion, $1.4 trillion… The stimulus auction continued last week. Early on Sunday, The New York Times... continue

When it comes to beverages, frothy can be delicious.

— Monday, December 14, 2020 —

In what may be the least inspiring description of fizzy drinks ever written, a group of food engineers explained, “Aeration in beverages, which is manifested as foam or bubbles, increases the sensory preference among... continue

When is bad news good news? Take a look at last week.

— Monday, December 7, 2020 —

Major stock indices in the United States hit all-time highs on Friday, despite a lackluster employment report and a surge in COVID-19 cases, reported Lewis Krauskopf of Reuters. During the week, we saw: The slowest jobs... continue

Last week, vaccine optimism immunized investors against signs of economic weakness.

— Monday, November 30, 2020 —

In previous commentaries we’ve written about narrative economics, which holds that popular stories may affect individual and collective economic behavior. Last week, diverse narratives had the... continue

The U.S. economy is like a semi-trailer truck.

— Monday, November 23, 2020 —

No one likes being stuck behind a semi at a stoplight because big trucks don’t go from zero to 60 in 2.5 seconds. Neither does the U.S. economy. When the pandemic brought our economy to a near virtual standstill early in 2020, the... continue

Vaccine can be a powerful word.

— Monday, November 16, 2020 —

It’s worth 14 points in Scrabble (42 on a triple word square) and, last week, it was worth a whole lot more than that to financial markets. On Monday, a pharmaceutical company and a biotech company announced preliminary trials of their vaccine... continue

It’s said markets hate uncertainty, but that wasn’t the case last week.

— Monday, November 9, 2020 —

Despite tremendous uncertainty about the outcome of the United States election, major domestic and international stock indices moved higher and the CBOE Volatility Index, better known as Wall Street’s fear... continue

Last week, financial markets and economic data told very different stories.

— Monday, November 2, 2020 —

Reviewing economic data is a bit like looking in a rearview mirror. Typically, it offers information about what is behind us. For example, last week we learned: The U.S. economy grew by 33.1 percent... continue

Stimulus talks led investors in a merry dance last week.

— Monday, October 26, 2020 —

So far in 2020, stock markets have been sensitive to fiscal stimulus. Last week, there was optimism a new stimulus package could be negotiated before the election. There also was skepticism about whether it would happen. An... continue

It was a turbulent week for investors.

— Monday, October 19, 2020 —

Waves of positive and negative news buffeted financial markets last week: The financial sector delivered upbeat earnings news Currently, many financial companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index have reported third quarter earnings and... continue

Yes. No. Maybe?

— Monday, October 12, 2020 —

Markets were sharply focused on the status of stimulus last week. First, it was on. Then, it was off. Then, it might be on. Then, it was off again. There was a big bill. There was a smaller bill. There were stand-alone options. ‘Maybe’ was enough for... continue

Last week, the third quarter of 2020 came to an end –

— Monday, October 5, 2020 —

And the fourth quarter delivered a doozy of an October surprise. President Trump has the coronavirus On Friday Americans awoke to the news President Trump had contracted COVID-19. Financial markets responded with relative... continue

For four weeks, the U.S. stock market has sparked and sputtered like a campfire in light rain.

— Monday, September 28, 2020 —

Today, pandemic-driven demand is providing fuel for the investors. The need for certain types of products and services has accelerated and innovation is creating new opportunities... continue

Investors weren’t happy with central banks last week.

— Monday, September 21, 2020 —

After the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell confirmed the economy is recovering more quickly than anticipated: “With the reopening of many businesses and factories and fewer... continue

Last week, the Nasdaq Composite Index set another record.

— Monday, September 14, 2020 —

So far, 2020 has been memorable for many reasons, not the least of which is the incredible speed at which some events have been occurring in financial markets. This year, we’ve experienced: The end of the longest U.S... continue

Stock markets in the United States retreated a bit last week.

— Tuesday, September 8, 2020 —

U.S. stocks have been trending higher for months. Last week, they gave back some gains. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 3.3 percent, while the S&P 500 Index fell 2.3 percent, and the Dow lost 1.8 percent, reported Ben... continue

The stock market rallies like it’s 1986.

— Monday, August 31, 2020 —

August has been a good month for stock investors. At the end of last week, the S&P 500 Index was up 6.8 percent for the month. The Index is poised to deliver its best returns for the month since 1986, when it gained 7.1 percent, reported... continue

The shortest bear market in history is over.

— Monday, August 24, 2020 —

The Nasdaq Composite and Standard & Poor’s 500 Indices finished at new highs last week. The stock market is considered to be a leading economic indicator, so strong stock market performance suggests economic improvement ahead. There... continue

The Markets

— Monday, August 17, 2020 —

The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index finished the week within a whisker of its February high, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s. It’s a remarkable feat. The stock market has recovered in just 175 days. Historically, comparable recoveries (those following... continue

There was good news and bad news in last week’s employment report.

— Monday, August 10, 2020 —

The good news was the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics delivered better-than-expected data about employment. In July, the U.S. economy added about 1.8 million new jobs. That’s about 300,000 more than the Wall... continue

Last week delivered a mixed bag of financial and economic news.

— Monday, August 3, 2020 —

As many expected, the U.S. economy did not fare well during the second quarter. COVID-19 lockdowns and business closings caused productivity to fall by one-third. Real gross domestic product, which is the value of all... continue

Where are we on vaccines and treatments?

— Monday, July 27, 2020 —

During 2020, the United States government has spent more than $13 billion on Operation Warp Speed (OWS), which is focused on accelerating the development of vaccines and treatments for COVID-19, according to The Economist. The United States... continue

Is the United States economy recovering or faltering?

— Monday, July 20, 2020 —

It depends on who you ask and which data you consider. For example, last week, the Department of Labor reported fewer people applied for first-time unemployment benefits during the week of July 11. That could be a tick in the... continue

Please don’t scream inside your heart.

— Monday, July 13, 2020 —

Last week, a reopened Japanese theme park asked patrons to wear masks to help reduce the spread of coronavirus. It also asked them not to scream while riding the rollercoaster. “Please scream inside your heart,” park management... continue

What a quarter!

— Monday, July 6, 2020 —

Who could have guessed a global pandemic would produce outsized stock market returns? Near the end of last quarter (March 23), the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 30.75 percent for the year, and it looked like 2020 was going to be a disappointing year for... continue

Blame it on the coronavirus.

— Monday, June 29, 2020 —

Stock markets in the United States and Europe retreated last week as the number of new COVID-19 cases increased steadily in America. On Thursday, there were more than 44,000 new cases, the highest daily total to date, according to data from the Centers... continue

Could it be the upside surprises?

— Monday, June 22, 2020 —

U.S. stock markets have marched higher despite a pandemic, an economic downturn, and social justice protests – and a lot of people have wondered why. Greg Rosalsky of Plant Money spoke with Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Shiller... continue

The Nasdaq Composite dipped its toes into record territory last week before retreating.

— Monday, June 15, 2020 —

Stock indices in the United States rallied early last week on optimism about the reopening of businesses across the country. The Nasdaq Composite rose to 10,000 for the first time ever, before... continue

The employment report electrified U.S. stock markets last week.

— Monday, June 8, 2020 —

American stock markets responded enthusiastically to the news U.S. unemployment was 13.3 percent in May. If it seems inexplicable double-digit unemployment would thrill investors, there is a reason. The unemployment... continue

Are those green shoots?

— Monday, June 1, 2020 —

In economic terms, green shoots are signs of improvement. If you were paying close attention, you might have seen some in economic data released last week. They weren’t apparent in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report on the United States economy. Gross... continue

It was a good week for stock markets in the United States, but there was trouble in Asia.

— Tuesday, May 26, 2020 —

U.S. stock markets rallied last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, and Nasdaq Composite all gained more than 3 percent, reported Ben Levisohn of... continue

America is reopening, state by state.

— Monday, May 18, 2020 —

That’s welcome news for many businesses, but we’re far from business as usual. Last week’s economic news included unemployment hitting an 80-year high, a record drop in retail sales (-16.4 percent), and an unprecedented decline in... continue

The stock market is not the economy.

— Monday, May 11, 2020 —

It’s an important point to remember when headlines marvel that U.S. stock markets are moving higher while the U.S. economy is contracting. Stock markets are not mindful of the present moment. They are forward-looking, reflecting expectations... continue

There are signs COVID-19 may be in retreat.

— Monday, May 4, 2020 —

Last week, the Centers for Disease Control reported, overall in the United States, for the week ending April 25 (officially week 17 of the coronavirus), the number of: - People visiting healthcare providers with COVID-19 symptoms... continue

We live in interesting times.

— Monday, April 27, 2020 —

There is discussion about whether the saying, “May you live in interesting times,” is a blessing or a curse. At this point in 2020, we all understand why. Last week, the world watched in consternation as the price of oil, specifically West Texas... continue

Last week’s economic data was about...

— Monday, April 20, 2020 —

...what you might expect in the midst of a virus crisis that has shut down businesses and forced people to stay home: *Retail sales were down 8.7 percent in March. Retail sales track demand for everything from clothing to refrigerators. The... continue

Why is the stock market doing so well when the COVID-19 pandemic has yet to peak?

— Monday, April 13, 2020 —

At the end of last week, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reported the United States remains in the acceleration phase of the coronavirus pandemic. This phase ends when new cases of... continue

In the Wizard of Oz, Dorothy says to her little dog, “Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anym

— Monday, April 6, 2020 —

Today, many of us understand Dorothy’s trepidation and uncertainty better than ever before. COVID-19 has changed our world in ways previously unimaginable. In many states... continue

The United States set some records last week.

— Monday, March 30, 2020 —

First, we became the epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic. Popular Science explained: “An increase of 15,000 known cases in just one day pushed the United States past Italy and China, making it the new epicenter of the... continue

The coronavirus (COVID-19) continued to spread across the United States last week.

— Monday, March 23, 2020 —

On Friday, March 13, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported there were 1,629 confirmed and presumptive cases and 41 deaths. Last Friday, March 20, the numbers had increased to 15,219 cases and... continue

Last week was one for the history books.

— Monday, March 16, 2020 —

Mid-week, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared coronavirus a global pandemic. At the time, there were more than 118,000 cases in 114 countries, and the death toll exceeded 4,000 people. On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control... continue

Last week, market volatility reached levels that make many investors uncomfortable.

— Monday, March 9, 2020 —

On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged higher, delivering its biggest one-day point gain in history. The catalyst may have been reports that ‘Group of Seven’ (G7) finance ministers... continue

Take a deep breath.

— Monday, March 2, 2020 —

We have experienced downturns before. Think back to 2018. During the last quarter of the year, major stock indices in the Unites States suffered double-digit losses, much of it during December. What happened next? By the end of 2019, those indices had reached... continue

Risk on or risk off?

— Monday, February 24, 2020 —

The coronavirus appears to have inspired two distinct schools of thought among investors. Some investors currently favor opportunities that are considered lower risk, like Treasury bonds and gold, because they’re concerned about the potential impact of the... continue

Many stock markets around the world moved higher last week.

— Tuesday, February 18, 2020 —

Investors’ optimism in the face of economic headwinds has confounded some in the financial services industry. Laurence Fletcher and Jennifer Ablan of Financial Times cited several money managers who believe investors... continue

Last week, major U.S. indices posted strong gains.

— Monday, February 10, 2020 —

That’s welcome news, but the drivers behind share price appreciation appear to have little to do with company fundamentals. Fourth quarter earnings season is underway. During earnings season, companies let investors know how... continue

Prepare yourself.

— Monday, February 3, 2020 —

There is a good chance markets will be volatile in the coming weeks. Precautions designed to slow the spread of the coronavirus may also slow Chinese economic growth and, by extension, global... continue

Markets hunkered down last week.

— Monday, January 27, 2020 —

News of the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China unsettled investors around the world. The respiratory infection is related to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), reported WebMD. Previous virus... continue

The new trade deals are here!

— Tuesday, January 21, 2020 —

The United States and China signed a preliminary trade deal last week. The next day, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement was approved by the Senate. The phase-one deal between the United States and China has been analyzed, applauded... continue

It was a nerve-wracking week.

— Monday, January 13, 2020 —

Iran fired 22 ballistic missiles at the Ain Al Asad air base near western Iraq and a second base in northern Iraq following last week’s U.S. drone strike that killed a top Iranian military commander. Newsweek reported the bases suffered minimal... continue

About face!

— Monday, January 6, 2020 —

2019 was a remarkable year for investors with many asset classes delivering positive performance. Both the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a gauge of U.S. stock market performance, and the Dow Jones Global (ex U.S.) Index delivered double-digit increases (see the below... continue

2019 will be a hard act to follow.

— Monday, December 30, 2019 —

Investors may find themselves reluctant to ring out the old and ring in the new this week. During 2019, stock and bond markets delivered exceptional returns. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s reported the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 23 percent... continue

Let’s hear it for 2019!

— Tuesday, December 24, 2019 —

Major stock indices in the United States and overseas are poised to deliver double-digit gains for the year. Even with uncertainty about Britain’s exit from the European Union (EU), the FTSE 100 boasted a gain of more than 10 percent at the end of last... continue

So, what comes next?

— Monday, December 16, 2019 —

Last week was a good week for investors. Ben Levisohn of Barron’s explained: “The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank both pledged to do what they could to underpin their respective economies. The United Kingdom gave Boris Johnson’s Conservative... continue

Ahh, the power of distraction.

— Monday, December 9, 2019 —

On Friday, the unemployment report flashed its numbers like a hair model in a shampoo commercial. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 266,000 new jobs were created in November. That was better than expected even after deducting the 40,000-plus... continue

It’s a shopping revolution!

— Monday, December 2, 2019 —

Sometime, probably not so long ago, comedian Dave Barry wrote, “Once again, we come to the Holiday Season, a deeply religious time that each of us observes, in his own way, by going to the mall of his choice.” Not so much anymore. On Black Friday... continue

Thanksgiving is in the air!

— Monday, November 25, 2019 —

On Thursday, U.S. investors may find themselves giving thanks for the bull market. Year-to-date, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite have all gained more than 20 percent with dividends reinvested. The... continue

The longest bull market in history showed no signs of slowing last week.

— Monday, November 18, 2019 —

U.S. stock markets climbed higher for the sixth week straight – the longest rally in U.S. markets in two years – and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 28,000 for the very first time, reported... continue

Last week, major United States stock indices finished at historic highs.

— Tuesday, November 12, 2019 —

According to a source cited by Barron’s, U.S. stock markets are responsible for creating $6 trillion in paper wealth this year. ‘Paper’ wealth is when an asset is estimated to be worth a specific amount... continue

They did it.

— Monday, November 4, 2019 —

The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates last week, as expected. There were no enthusiastic fans singing the Baby Shark song, but the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision was well received. Reuters reported, “Gaps between market expectations and the Fed’s... continue

More money managers are feeling less bullish...

— Monday, October 28, 2019 —

...but you sure couldn’t tell by the performance of U.S. stock markets last week. So far, 2019 has been a tremendous year for U.S. stocks. Through the end of last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had gained more than 20... continue

Last week was like an overstuffed suitcase ...

— Monday, October 21, 2019 —

...that busts open on the baggage carousel. A lot was unpacked in a surprising and disorderly fashion. There was some positive news for investors who prioritize fundamentals. Third quarter’s earnings season – the period of time when... continue

The world breathed a sigh of relief last week ...

— Monday, October 14, 2019 —

...when the United States and China took a step toward a trade-war truce. Financial Times reported the United States agreed to not increase tariffs from 25 percent to 30 percent on $250 billion of Chinese imports next week. (Current... continue

From trade wars to impeachment inquiries...

— Monday, October 7, 2019 —

investors had a lot to ponder during the third quarter. Toward the end of September, they appeared to become more cautious, although it’s difficult to say which issues weighed most heavily. Here are a few questions they may have been... continue

They say bull markets climb a wall of worry.

— Monday, September 30, 2019 —

Investopedia’s Will Kenton explained the idea like this: “…a bull market isn’t a peaceful place. When times are good, investors are constantly tense, wondering how long they will keep rolling, fretting about when a seemingly... continue

There’s a new theory in town.

— Monday, September 23, 2019 —

Renowned economist Robert Shiller’s new book suggests investors may be able to predict and prepare for economic events by tracking popular stories. Applying the theory might have been a challenge last week. There were so many stories with potential... continue

Where’s inflation?

— Monday, September 16, 2019 —

If you enjoy searching for Waldo, the visual nemesis in a red-striped sweater and cap, you may appreciate the quandary of central bankers in many wealthy nations. For almost a decade, they’ve been they’ve been trying to find inflation. Last week, there were... continue

Remember the movie Groundhog Day?

— Monday, September 9, 2019 —

Bill Murray’s character is a crotchety newsman who lives the same day over and over again. After exhausting other options, he chooses self-improvement and eventually escapes the cycle. The movie came to mind last week when the United States and... continue

What, me worry?

— Tuesday, September 3, 2019 —

About this time last year, Time Magazine reported on anxiety in America. Almost 40 percent of Americans reported being more anxious than they were the previous year. The performance of stock and bond markets this summer may have pushed those numbers higher. Last... continue

Have you ever watched a lake in a thunderstorm?

— Monday, August 26, 2019 —

Heavy rain pummels the surface. Dark clouds drop the sky closer to the water. Gusty winds crash waves ashore. Up top, on land, damage may occur. Underneath, in the deeper water, things often remain pretty much the same. Last... continue

Don’t let volatility get you down.

— Monday, August 19, 2019 —

Last week was the 40th anniversary of BusinessWeek’s infamous cover headline: ‘The Death of Equities: How inflation is destroying the stock market.’ The publication’s current iteration, Bloomberg Businessweek, reported it is still getting... continue

Global selloff. Quick comeback.

— Monday, August 12, 2019 —

Investors boomeranged from stocks to safe havens and back as trade tensions between the United States and China intensified last week. The Economist reported: “On August 1st President Donald Trump warned that he would soon impose a 10 percent levy... continue

Tariffs strike again.

— Monday, August 5, 2019 —

The Federal Open Market Committee completed what it called ‘a mid-cycle adjustment’ with a quarter-point rate cut last week. Some investors were unhappy when Fed officials implied there would not be another reduction this year. They’d been hoping for at... continue

It has been said there are two sides to every story.

— Monday, July 29, 2019 —

Just look at world financial markets. Stock markets and bond markets are telling very different stories. In the United States, stock markets were blue ribbon winners last week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounded to a... continue

Did last week mark the start of a new policy for the Federal Reserve?

— Monday, July 22, 2019 —

The U.S. Federal Reserve has a reputation for providing little transparency about the timing and direction of potential rate changes. That reputation was challenged last week. In back-to-back speeches, two of... continue

The bulls are running.

— Monday, July 15, 2019 —

Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index set a new record, closing above 3,000 for the first time. Other major U.S. stock indices also finished at record highs, reported Barron’s. Company fundamentals, investor sentiment, and geopolitics all have the... continue

What will the Federal Reserve do now?

— Monday, July 8, 2019 —

There was unexpected economic news last week. On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced 224,000 new jobs were added in June, which was more than analysts had anticipated. The gains were offset a bit by reductions in April and May... continue

In the infamous words of Mortimer Snerd...

— Monday, July 1, 2019 —

...“Who’d a thunk it?” After U.S. stocks dropped sharply during the last weeks of December 2018, investors were not optimistic about the future. Early in January 2019, the State Street Investor Confidence Index dropped to its lowest... continue

Everything went up – and that’s unusual.

— Monday, June 24, 2019 —

Randall Forsyth of Barron’s explained, “Like our major political parties, the stock and bond markets seem to live in two different worlds these days. The former sits at record levels, suggesting we live in the best of all possible worlds... continue

Are we on the cusp of change?

— Monday, June 17, 2019 —

The United States is doing quite well. Randall Forsyth of Barron’s reported: “…the U.S. economy and stock market both seem to be doing better than OK, thank you, as the expansion and bull market celebrate their 10th anniversaries. Unemployment... continue

Surprise! It was a great week for markets.

— Monday, June 10, 2019 —

Since the U.S.-China trade conflict resumed in early May, investors have been off balance. The possibility of escalating tariffs on Mexico heightened economic uncertainty. Then, last week’s unemployment report arrived with less than... continue

Tariff trouble.

— Monday, June 3, 2019 —

Just two weeks ago, the U.S. government lifted tariffs on Mexico and Canada. So, it was a surprise last week when President Trump tweeted the United States would impose an escalating tariff on all goods imported from Mexico until the flow of migrants to the United... continue

U.S. stocks have had a great run.

— Tuesday, May 28, 2019 —

During the past decade, the profitability of U.S. companies increased rapidly. Strong corporate earnings helped the U.S. stock market outperform markets in other nations by a significant margin. According to Capital Economics, “Since the start of... continue

Trade war trade-off.

— Monday, May 20, 2019 —

There was some good news on trade, last week. The United States took steps to reduce trade friction with the European Union, Canada, Mexico, and Japan. “The United States on Friday reached an agreement with Canada and Mexico to remove steel and aluminum... continue

Trade talk trouble took a toll last week.

— Monday, May 13, 2019 —

Major U.S. stock indices moved lower when trade talks between the United States and China broke down. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Index all finished the week down between 2 percent... continue

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index is off...

— Monday, May 6, 2019 —

... to its best start in 20 years. Despite the exceptional performance of U.S. stock markets year-to-date, and data that suggest economic growth remains steady, some analysts and investors have been pecking at Federal Reserve Chair Jerome... continue

It wasn’t an ‘Avengers End Game’ spoiler, but there was big news last week.

— Monday, April 29, 2019 —

Economic growth in the United States was strong during the first quarter. The Bureau Of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in... continue

And the answer is…

— Monday, April 22, 2019 —

A Jeopardy! contestant captured the nation’s attention last week by setting multiple records for the most money earned in a single episode. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has been setting some records, too. Michael Mackenzie of Financial Times... continue

Investors took an intermission.

— Monday, April 15, 2019 —

The curtain appeared to close on the first act of 2019 last week – and what an impressive act it was. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index delivered some dramatic returns and is less than 1 percent away from a new all-time high. Despite relatively... continue

The first quarter of 2019 brought a welcome reversal

— Monday, April 8, 2019 —

Last year, Barron’s published a group of market strategists’ expectations for 2019 performance. The article came out in mid-December, before the steep year-end stock market decline. At that time, all of the strategists... continue

“Fascinatingly counterintuitive…”

— Monday, April 1, 2019 —

That’s how Michael Arone, an investment strategist, described the U.S. market environment to Avi Salzman of Barron’s: “‘Stocks are rallying, but bond yields are reflecting much lower growth.’ Stocks rose during the quarter because the Fed... continue

Wonder what the Federal Reserve’s 40-yard dash time is?

— Monday, March 25, 2019 —

On Wednesday, the Fed juked like an NFL running back and left investors wondering whether they should buy or sell. Heather Long of The Washington Post reported the U.S. central bank: Lowered its 2019 estimate for U.S... continue

Stock and bond markets rallied.

— Monday, March 18, 2019 —

Last week, major U.S. stock indices finished higher for the 10th time in 12 weeks. Bond markets moved higher, too, with the yield on 10-year Treasuries dropping just below 2.6 percent, reported Randall Forsyth of Barron’s. Yields on 10-year... continue

Markets were rattled last week..

— Monday, March 11, 2019 —

The market hates surprises, especially when the surprise comes from a central bank. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) unexpectedly reversed course and took a more accommodative stance on monetary policy in an effort to encourage stronger... continue

Is it a soft landing?

— Monday, March 4, 2019 —

Economists use aviation metaphors to describe the results of central banks’ efforts to manage rapidly growing economies. If the Federal Reserve lifts rates enough to prevent the economy from overheating without jolting it into recession, then it has... continue

Investors were pleased with the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) new approach to its balance sheet.

— Monday, February 25, 2019 —

The Fed delivered its semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress last week. The report recapped the events of late 2018 and reiterated the Fed’s intention to “…be patient as it... continue

Why did the stock market do that?

— Wednesday, February 20, 2019 —

The great mystery of stock markets reared its head last week. With no clear driver, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained more than 3 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index moved higher by about 2.5 percent... continue

Central banks take a turn.

— Monday, February 11, 2019 —

At its first policy meeting of 2019, the U.S. Federal Reserve changed direction. After four rate increases in 2018, Chair Jerome Powell announced interest rates were on hold. Last week, banks in the United Kingdom, Australia, and India followed suit by... continue

And, U.S. stock markets celebrated.

— Monday, February 4, 2019 —

Last week, the Federal Reserve put itself on hold. The Federal Open Market Committee met on Wednesday, January 30, 2019, to discuss the state of the economy and determine policy. After the meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered a positive... continue

Like competitors who've completed a difficult section in an endurance race...

— Monday, January 28, 2019 —

...U.S. stock investors took a breather last week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which has gotten off to its best start since 1987, ended the week with a slight loss, while the Dow Jones Industrial... continue

We’re off to a good start.

— Monday, January 21, 2019 —

Investors who remained steady during December’s wild ride are probably pleased with their decision as stocks have gotten off to a strong start in 2019. Unfortunately, those who reduced their exposure to the asset class may be feeling the sting of missed... continue

People love rules of thumb

— Monday, January 14, 2019 —

Sometimes, mental shortcuts are helpful. Other times they are not. When it comes to investing, seasonal shortcuts are not uncommon. In fact, January boasts two: The January Effect explains why U.S. smaller company stocks tend to outperform the market... continue

Investors will think of the last quarter of 2018 for years to come...

— Monday, January 7, 2019 —

...but they won’t remember it fondly. The Economist described it like this, “After a rotten October and limp November, the S&P 500 tumbled in value by 15 percent between November 30th and December 24th... continue

Investing during the month of December...

— Monday, December 31, 2018 —

...was like traversing an icy mountain stream. It delivered a staggering shock to the senses that triggered the instinct to, “Get Out!” When it comes to investing, that instinct is called loss aversion. For many people avoiding a loss... continue

Ouch!

— Monday, December 17, 2018 —

It never feels good when the stock market heads south, and that’s what happened last week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500), Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite all moved into correction territory, which means the indices have fallen 10 percent or... continue

We’re off to a slow start.

— Monday, December 10, 2018 —

December is usually the best month of the year for the stock market. It has been since 1950, according to Randall Forsyth of Barron’s, but not so far this year. Two issues made investors particularly uncomfortable last week which helped trigger a... continue

Hold on to your hats!

— Monday, December 3, 2018 —

Recently, stocks have delivered a wild ride. During Thanksgiving week, U.S. stock markets took investor uncertainty on the chin, suffering a 3.8 percent drop, which was the worst performance in eight months. Then, last week, stocks reversed course. The... continue

It was a turkey of a week.

— Monday, November 26, 2018 —

The United States and China continued to spar over trade and other issues. An expert from Moody’s told Frank Tang of the South China Morning Post (SCMP) the United States-China dispute will not be easily resolved: “Look at the speech Vice President... continue

Keep your eyes on the horizon.

— Monday, November 19, 2018 —

Motion sickness happens when your body receives conflicting signals from your eyes, ears, and other body parts. One way to manage the anxiety and queasiness that accompany the condition is by keeping your eyes on the horizon. The motion of the stock... continue

How are you feeling about financial markets?

— Monday, November 12, 2018 —

Some votes are still being counted but investors appear to be happy with the outcome of mid-term elections. Major U.S. stock indices in the United States moved higher last week, and the American Association of Individual Investors... continue

Stocks recovered some ground last week and then stumbled over unemployment.

— Monday, November 5, 2018 —

Major U.S. stock indices faltered Friday after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on a popular ‘lagging’ economic indicator – unemployment. (Remember, lagging indicators describe what has... continue

Why did the stock market fall when the economy is doing well?

— Monday, October 29, 2018 —

The answer is that one reflects the past and the other anticipates the future. Last Friday’s advance estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the U.S. economy grew 3.5 percent during the third quarter of... continue

The world remains full of opportunities...

— Monday, October 22, 2018 —

...and challenges. Although we’ve seen global markets moving in tandem in recent years, Sara Potter of FactSet pointed out, “…we’re starting to see the end of the synchronized global growth that has prevailed over the last two... continue

Like an unexpected gust of wind...

— Monday, October 15, 2018 —

...that blows the hat off your head or flips your umbrella inside out, last week’s stock market performance startled investors. Looking back, it’s easy to identify some of the factors that may have contributed to investors’ unease and shaken... continue

The stock market tends to be a leading economic indicator.

— Monday, October 8, 2018 —

Last week offered some insight to economics and stock market behavior. The U.S. unemployment rate reached its lowest level since 1969 and wages moved higher, yet major U.S. stock indices lost value. Why didn’t stock... continue

It wasn't headline news...

— Monday, October 1, 2018 —

...but, if newsprint was still popular, last week’s key economic news would have appeared below the fold. The Federal Reserve raised rates for the third time in 2018, as expected. In addition, the Federal Open Market Committee projects economic growth... continue

Did you hear the news?

— Monday, September 24, 2018 —

A tech company introduced a microwave you can turn on using Wi-Fi – as long as you have one of the company’s voice assistants at home, reported Kaitlyn Tiffany of Vox. Soon, the voice assistants will be built with neural networks that will formulate... continue

All investors are consumers, but not all consumers are investors.

— Monday, September 17, 2018 —

The September installment of University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Survey reported Americans are feeling pretty optimistic. Consumer sentiment rose to the second highest level since 2004, and consumer... continue

Remember: Volatility is normal.

— Monday, September 10, 2018 —

Major U.S. stock market indices climbed into record territory during August. They gave back some gains last week. Peter Wells of Financial Times explained: “Speculation about a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese imports from the Trump administration... continue

Where is Our Country’s Biggest Export Market?

— Monday, September 3, 2018 —

Markets were fired up last week after the United States and Mexico agreed on new trade rules. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index reached an all-time high and finished the month of August up about 3 percent, reported Michael... continue

Tick, Tock.

— Monday, August 27, 2018 —

Not everybody loves meetings and even fewer enjoy reading the minutes, but investors make an exception with the Federal Reserve. This week the Fed published the minutes from its August 1 meeting. While no changes were made to interest rates, the minutes did provide... continue

As Maxwell Smart used to say…

— Monday, August 20, 2018 —

Missed it by THAT much! After a rocky start, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index came within 1 percent of an all-time high last week, reported Ben Levisohn for Barron’s. It’s significant because the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has been trading... continue

Let's talk Turkey!

— Monday, August 13, 2018 —

So, how did a country that represents just about 1.4 percent of the world’s economy spark a global selloff? Turkey was once a rising star. The country’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan took office in 2003 and his, “conservative, pro-business policies... continue

$100 billion over 10 years.

— Monday, August 6, 2018 —

Capital gains tax reform comes with a big price tag: $100 billion over 10 years. A capital gain is any increase in the value of an asset, such as an investment, a home, land, etc., between its purchase and its sale. The amount of a gain is determined by... continue

Is it a sugar rush or something more sustainable?

— Monday, July 30, 2018 —

Economic growth in the United States was strong during the second quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced in the United States, grew by 4.1 percent. That’s the fastest growth... continue

Last week, there was some good news and some notable news.

— Tuesday, July 24, 2018 —

Here’s the good news: Corporate earnings have been strong. As of July 20, 17 percent of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index had reported second quarter results. More than 85 percent of those companies... continue

Investors are becoming more discriminating.

— Monday, July 16, 2018 —

Trade tensions escalated as the U.S. administration expanded tariffs on Chinese goods last week. You wouldn’t have known by watching the performance of benchmark indices, though. Just four of the 25 national stock market indices... continue

What a rollercoaster of a quarter!

— Monday, July 9, 2018 —

When it comes to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey, respondents tend to be more bullish than bearish about U.S. stock markets. The survey’s historical averages are: • 38.5 percent bullish • 31.0... continue

There’s a Bear in China – and It’s Not a Panda.

— Monday, July 2, 2018 —

The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index, which reflects the performance of all shares that trade on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, dropped into bear market territory last week, reported CNBC. The Index has fallen more than 20... continue

What time is it?

— Monday, June 25, 2018 —

The yield curve may be the pocket watch of economic indicators. It’s been around for a long time and it’s often right, but not always. The yield curve is the difference between the interest paid on two-year government bonds and 10-year government bonds. In... continue

Deal or No Deal?

— Monday, June 18, 2018 —

Last week opened with heightened trade tensions between the United States and its allies. It closed with the United States imposing new tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods. The Chinese declared it was the start of a trade war, reported Financial Times. U.S... continue

G whiz!

— Monday, June 11, 2018 —

Never before could the Group of 7 (G7) Summit have been mistaken for reality TV. The generally dignified annual meeting of leaders from the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom (along with the heads of the European Commission and... continue

If the countries were instruments, last week sounded like a fifth grade garage band.

— Monday, June 4, 2018 —

World markets were buffeted by a clamor of good, bad, and unexpected news last week. Events that captured media and investor attention included: Taxing America’s allies. Early in the week... continue

Geopolitical uncertainty didn’t dent U.S. stocks last week.

— Monday, May 28, 2018 —

Geopolitics is the intersection of geography, economics, and politics. Last week, there were some fine examples of the ways geopolitical events can create uncertainty. Barron’s reported: “President Donald Trump began... continue

Too much? Too little? Or just right?

— Monday, May 21, 2018 —

U.S. stock markets were relatively calm, although they finished the week lower. U.S. Treasury yields hit a 7-year high and finished the week above 3 percent. While these were notable, the most remarkable events last week occurred beyond our... continue

Splash!

— Monday, May 14, 2018 —

How do employers lure staff in a tightening labor market? The curly tail grubs and spinnies of the business world are higher wages and better benefits. During the past decade, the employment picture in the United States has shifted dramatically. In mid-2009, 15.4 million... continue

What in the world?

— Monday, May 7, 2018 —

A lot happened last week. Some of the notable events included: Trade talks between the United States and China. The talks were described as “frank, efficient, and constructive,” although significant issues have yet to be resolved. A Federal Open Market... continue

A meeting of the minds.

— Monday, April 30, 2018 —

The Federal Reserve and the U.S. bond market appear to be in agreement about the direction of interest rates. For more years than anyone cares to count, investment professionals have been predicting the end of the bull market in bonds. Bond guru Bill Gross... continue

The world is in debt.

— Monday, April 23, 2018 —

The April 2018 International Monetary Fund (IMF) Fiscal Monitor reported global debt has reached an historically high level. In 2016, debt peaked at 225 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP; the value of all goods and services produced across the... continue

What do you think?

— Monday, April 16, 2018 —

Are you bullish, bearish, or neutral about the U.S. stock market? Are U.S. stocks undervalued, overvalued, or fairly valued? What is the biggest threat the U.S. stock market faces this year? During the first four months of 2018, U.S. stocks have experienced... continue

You could almost hear the spurs jingling.

— Monday, April 9, 2018 —

Trade tensions ratcheted higher last week as the United States and China staked new positions on the not-so-dusty main street of trade. It was the latest round of posturing in what has the potential to become a trade war between the... continue

In like a lion…

— Monday, April 2, 2018 —

Investors roared into 2018. During the first week of the first quarter of the New Year, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose above 25,000 for the first time ever. Less than two weeks later, it closed above 26,000. The Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index and... continue

Why am I saving and investing?

— Monday, March 26, 2018 —

After a week like last week, it’s an important question. There are many reasons people save and invest, including to: Live the life they want today and in the future Accumulate resources so they’re prepared for any bumps in the road Provide... continue

It’s a good time for a gut check.

— Monday, March 19, 2018 —

Last week, after sliding lower for four days, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index recouped some of its losses on Friday. The reasons behind the week’s poor showing were diverse. Barron’s reported: “The market is so discombobulated right now... continue

It’s a bird…It’s a plane…It’s a labor shortage!

— Monday, March 12, 2018 —

It’s a bird…It’s a plane…It’s a labor shortage! There is little doubt the Millennial generation has been reshaping our world. One of the most remarkable aspects of this demographic group is a preference for experiences over... continue

As Yogi Berra once said: It’s déjà vu all over again.

— Monday, March 5, 2018 —

Last week, global stock markets took a bit of a dip after President Trump announced a 25 percent tariff on steel and a 10 percent tariff on aluminum. Tariffs are taxes on goods imported from other countries. In general... continue

U.S. Treasuries are offering a lesson in supply and demand.

— Monday, February 26, 2018 —

Last week, the U.S. Treasury auctioned $258 billion in bonds. Treasury auctions are the way the United States government finances its debt. The Treasury sells short-, intermediate-, and long-term IOUs, known as bills... continue

As New York Fashion Week ended, inflation strutted its stuff.

— Tuesday, February 20, 2018 —

Ever since the Federal Reserve began raising the Fed funds rate in 2015, analysts have been anticipating higher inflation. The fact that price increases remained relatively small was a perplexing mystery. Then, last... continue

Back to reality...

— Monday, February 12, 2018 —

After months of eerie calm, stock market volatility has returned. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) – a measure of how turbulent investors expect stock markets to be during the next 30 days – appeared to fall asleep in November 2016. For more than a year, a... continue

It was not a good week for stocks.

— Monday, February 5, 2018 —

Last week, stock markets around the world lost value. In the United States, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500), Dow Jones Industrial Index (Dow), and NASDAQ all finished lower. Some pundits have been drawing comparisons between the... continue

The numbers are coming in.

— Monday, January 29, 2018 —

Publicly-traded companies report their earnings and sales numbers for the previous quarter in the current quarter. For example, fourth quarter’s sales and earnings are reported during the first quarter of the year, and first quarter’s sales and... continue

"Gone negotiating."

— Monday, January 22, 2018 —

Last week, the United States government might as well have hung a sign on the front door of the Capitol that read, “Gone negotiating. We’ll be back in…however long it takes.” In 2013, the U.S. government closed for 16 days. About 850,000 federal workers... continue

Inflation, inflation, where’s the inflation?

— Tuesday, January 16, 2018 —

The U.S. Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates in anticipation of higher inflation. In its 2018 forecast, Goldman Sachs indicated it expected to see “a gradual increase in global core inflation, albeit to levels that are still... continue

Whoosh! Bang! Flash! Fizz! Whistle!

— Monday, January 8, 2018 —

U.S. stock markets delivered their own version of fireworks to celebrate the New Year. During the first week of 2018, the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new all-time high, moving above 25,000 for the first time ever. The NASDAQ Composite and... continue

How good was 2017?

— Tuesday, January 2, 2018 —

It was so good, the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index finished in positive territory every month for the first time ever (on a total return basis), reported Barron’s. All major U.S. indices finished the year with double-digit gains. As we enter 2018, keep... continue

It’s time to turn your mind to taxes.

— Tuesday, December 26, 2017 —

Last week, President Trump signed tax reform, officially titled ‘An Act to provide for reconciliation pursuant to titles II and V of the concurrent resolution on the budget for fiscal year 2018,’ into law. The legislation provides... continue

Here we come a tax-reforming…

— Monday, December 18, 2017 —

The reconciliation of Congressional tax reform bills proceeded apace last week, and Congress is expected to vote on the measure early this week. If tax reform passes, Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of U.S. equity strategy with JPMorgan, thinks we may see... continue

“It's the hap- happiest season of all.”

— Monday, December 11, 2017 —

While holidays don’t make everyone happy, investors should be feeling festive. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up more than 18 percent year-to-date. The Dow Jones Global ex U.S. Index is up about 21 percent year-to-date (refer to the... continue

What will it take to shake investors’ confidence?

— Monday, December 4, 2017 —

From the perspective of unsettling events, last week was jam-packed. North Korea claimed to have the capability to strike the United States with a nuclear missile, tax reform continued to travel a controversial path through the... continue

There was a lot to be thankful for last week.

— Monday, November 27, 2017 —

Stock markets around the world may have ripened to full-slip sweetness this year. Emerging markets have delivered the most attractive returns year-to-date. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index was up 34 percent year-to-date, last week. The... continue

Are investors more like tigers or African wild dogs?

— Tuesday, November 21, 2017 —

It appears investors – retail and institutional – have become rather like predators. They patiently stalk shares, waiting for a dip, and then they strike – buying stocks when prices fall. Consider last week. Barron’s... continue

Selling it overseas.

— Monday, November 13, 2017 —

Most of the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index have reported third quarter earnings per share (EPS), which is the profit earned per share of stock outstanding during the period. Many have done quite well. With more than 90 percent of... continue

“Taxes are what we pay for a civilized society.”

— Monday, November 6, 2017 —

U.S. Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes’s statement is engraved on the front of the Internal Revenue Service building in Washington, D.C. Some people agree with the sentiment. Others believe it to be a logical... continue

The last full week of October was a box full of surprises.

— Monday, October 30, 2017 —

First, U.S. economic growth exceeded expectations. The devastation wrought by Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria was widely expected to stifle U.S. quarterly growth, according to NPR. The Atlanta Federal Reserve predicted... continue

And the hits just keep on coming.

— Monday, October 23, 2017 —

Last week was the anniversary of Black Monday. On October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) lost 508 points, or more than 20 percent of its value, as it fell from the previous trading day’s closing value of 2,247 to 1,739. The... continue

There’s a new kid in town: narrative economics.

— Monday, October 16, 2017 —

Last week, Richard Thaler was awarded the Nobel Prize in economics. His work in behavioral economics and finance recognizes not all economic and financial decisions are made after rational reflection. In Nudge, he wrote: “The... continue

Slow and steady...

— Monday, October 9, 2017 —

It has been 332 days since the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index experienced a 5 percent drop, reported Barron’s. If there isn’t a selloff on Monday or Tuesday, this will become the longest rally without such a drop. During this period, the Index has... continue

A lot happened during the third quarter of 2017, but not much changed.

— Tuesday, October 3, 2017 —

The bull market in U.S. stocks continued to charge ahead. Traditional measures of valuation continued to suggest the market is overvalued, but some analysts argued it’s different this time. The Economist... continue

Geopolitics, what is it good for?

— Monday, September 25, 2017 —

Absolutely nothin'! In January, Robert Kahn of the Council on Foreign Relations wrote in Global Economics Monthly: “Markets showed impressive resilience in the face of a range of geopolitical shocks in 2016, but recent market moves suggest this... continue

"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice, in practice there is."

— Monday, September 18, 2017 —

Yogi Berra was talking about baseball, but the concept also applies to diversification, according to the GMO White Paper, The S&P 500: Just Say No. From the title, you might think the authors –... continue

Last week, the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey...

— Monday, September 11, 2017 —

Last week, the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey and potency of Hurricane Irma dominated hearts and minds, but there were some diversions and some welcome news, too. The NFL kicked off its 2017 season with the Chiefs’ win over the... continue

When it comes to economic growth...

— Tuesday, September 5, 2017 —

...the government doesn’t measure twice. It measures three times. Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its initial estimate that the gross domestic product (GDP), which is the value of all goods and services produced by a country... continue

Hope floats.

— Monday, August 28, 2017 —

Optimism about possible pro-growth economic policies, including tax reform and deregulation, helped U.S. stock indices finish higher last week, reported Barron’s. It wasn’t all smooth sailing, though. Stocks bobbed up and down as investors’ optimism was weighted... continue

Here, there, and everywhere…

— Monday, August 21, 2017 —

Markets around the world appear to be benefitting from global economic recovery. After pointing out the United States’ economy is the heart of the global financial system, Barron’s reported: “The Standard & Poor’s 500 index has tirelessly... continue

North Korea may be a little country, but it can churn up big trouble.

— Monday, August 14, 2017 —

The possibility that verbal hostilities between the United States and North Korea could trigger geopolitical conflict had investors on the run last week. In the United States, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index... continue

Who’s been buying shares of company stock?

— Monday, August 7, 2017 —

Since the start of the bull market in 2009, U.S. companies have been buying their own stock. Stock buybacks peaked during the first three quarters of 2016 and have dropped off sharply since then, reports Financial Times citing a report... continue

There was some good news and some bad news last week.

— Monday, July 31, 2017 —

First, the good news: Thanks to consumer spending and an upturn in federal government spending, the U.S. economy grew faster from April through June this year. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.6 percent during the period... continue

Do we have central banks to thank?

— Monday, July 24, 2017 —

Low interest rates, accommodative monetary policy, and improving economic growth have helped stock markets around the world reach record highs, reports Barron’s: “…a look around the globe shows the surge of the U.S. market to new peaks to... continue

It was a good week for a lot of stocks but not bank stocks.

— Monday, July 17, 2017 —

The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) both finished at record highs last week. Barron’s indicated investors owe Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen a debt of... continue

Things you may want to know…

— Monday, July 10, 2017 —

Last Friday, Financial Times (FT) published, ‘Five markets charts that matter for investors.’ Among the issues addressed in the charts were: The bond market bear watch. The yield on 10-year German Bunds (Germany’s government bonds) reached an... continue

This is the way the quarter ends -

— Wednesday, July 5, 2017 —

– with a central bank scare. Central bankers are stodgy. They speak carefully. For many, reading the words ‘Federal Reserve’ is enough to cause boredom to set in and web surfing to ensue. Last week, though, the European Central Bank and... continue

It has been a very good year, so far.

— Monday, June 26, 2017 —

Through the end of last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index posted 24 record highs and delivered returns in the high single digits. The MSCI World ex USA Index was up more than 11 percent, and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index gained more... continue

All eyes on inflation!

— Monday, June 19, 2017 —

Inflation is the way economists measure changes in the prices of goods and services. The United States has enjoyed relatively low inflation for a significant period of time. Last week, the consumer price index indicated inflation had moved lower in... continue

Stock market historians may dub 2017 the Xanax year.

— Monday, June 12, 2017 —

Traditional historians will probably choose a different moniker. Stock markets in many advanced economies have been unusually calm during 2017, reported Schwab’s Jeffrey Kleintop in a May 15, 2017 commentary. The CBOE... continue

The bull market in U.S. stocks is getting really old!

— Monday, June 5, 2017 —

In fact, this bull has been charging, standing, or sitting for more than eight years. In April, it became the second longest bull market in American history, according to CNN Money. There are some good reasons the stock market... continue

Is preparing for the future more important than enjoying the present?

— Tuesday, May 30, 2017 —

There is a lot to enjoy today. Last week, Financial Times wrote: “Wall Street ended an impressive week on a steady note – eking out a tiny gain to a fresh record close – as oil prices recouped some of the... continue

How much is too much?

— Monday, May 22, 2017 —

There has been no shortage of drama since the new administration took office – legislative setbacks, controversial hiring and firing, and fiery tweets on various topics. Regardless, U.S. investors and markets remained stalwart until last week when the CBOE... continue

Does performance tell the whole story?

— Monday, May 15, 2017 —

American stock markets have delivered some exceptional performance in recent years. Just look at the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index. Barron’s reported the S&P 500, including reinvested dividends, has returned 215 percent since... continue

Is it Complacency?

— Monday, May 8, 2017 —

Exuberance? Uncertainty? Exhaustion? Insight? Intuition? Last week, all three major U.S. stock markets gained value and two reached new record highs. On the face of it, that’s great news for stock investors. However, if you look below the surface, the... continue

It was a good week to own stocks.

— Monday, May 1, 2017 —

Not all financial news was good news last week, but that didn’t prevent U.S. stock markets from moving higher. Barron’s reported on the good news: “This past week, welcome political news from Europe, a batch of stellar corporate-earnings... continue

Last week, investors multi-tasked...

— Monday, April 24, 2017 —

...pushing both U.S. bond and stock markets higher. In March, the Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds rates for the second time in three months. Typically, we would expect interest rates to rise and bond prices to fall, but interest rates have... continue

And the survey said...

— Monday, April 17, 2017 —

In late 2016, Natixis Global surveyed 500 institutional decision makers representing corporate pension plans, public pension plans, sovereign wealth funds, insurance companies, foundations, and endowments. Survey participants said market volatility... continue

U.S. stock markets are sending mixed signals

— Monday, April 10, 2017 —

If you look at the performance of the CBOE Volatility Index (a.k.a. the VIX or fear gauge), which is a measure of market expectations for volatility in the near future, it appears all is well and investors expect no unexpected events... continue

Happy birthday!

— Monday, April 3, 2017 —

Toward the end of the first quarter, the bull market celebrated its eighth birthday. David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management wrote: “Eight years ago, on March 9, 2009, the S&P 500 closed at 677, down 57 percent from where it had been... continue

You’ve read it before...

— Monday, March 27, 2017 —

... and it’s true. Markets hate uncertainty. Failure to pass the American Healthcare Act, which was supported by Republican leaders in Congress and President Trump, may have spooked U.S. stock markets last week. In an article titled, “How To Make... continue

Three steps and no stumble.

— Monday, March 20, 2017 —

Technical analyst Edson Gould developed a market rule of thumb known as ‘three steps and a stumble.’ It states stock prices may fall after the Federal Reserve (Fed) raises the Fed funds rate three times in a row without a decline, according to... continue

Rate hike ahead…maybe.

— Monday, March 13, 2017 —

Last week’s U.S. employment report was better than expected. The United States added 235,000 jobs in February, which was a few more than economists had forecast. It may seem counterintuitive, but the positive economic data helped push U.S. stock markets... continue

It was a grand slam.

— Monday, March 6, 2017 —

Major U.S. stock markets were positively euphoric following President Trump’s speech on February 28. Optimism about the new administration’s pro-growth policies propelled the four major U.S. stock indices to record highs, despite a dearth of policy... continue

Once upon a time...

— Monday, February 27, 2017 —

...five blind men discovered an elephant. Each man examined a different part of the elephant and formed a unique impression about the animal. One believed an elephant was like a pillar, while another decided an elephant was like a snake, and so on. In recent... continue

Up!

— Tuesday, February 21, 2017 —

Four major U.S. benchmark stock indices closed at record highs for four consecutive days during Valentine’s Day week, reported Financial Times (FT). To date, positive corporate earnings and robust investor confidence have offset fiscal and political uncertainty and helped... continue

What’s the word ‘phenomenal’ worth?

— Monday, February 13, 2017 —

It all depends on who says it. Barron’s shared Wilshire Associates’ calculations which indicated the word was worth about $175 billion – the amount markets gained last Thursday – when President Trump used it to describe the tax plan his... continue

U.S. stock markets were unsettled last week.

— Monday, February 6, 2017 —

President Trump's executive order banning travel from seven predominantly Muslim countries to the United States for 90 days, in tandem with some disappointing earnings reports, inspired turmoil and uncertainty that helped push U.S. stock... continue

An historic moment for U.S. stock markets…

— Monday, January 30, 2017 —

The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 20,000 last week. Barron’s cautioned investors not to make too much of the milestone since, “There are only 30 stocks in the index so each one carries a lot of weight.” Regardless of the... continue

Markets weren’t quite sure which direction to move last week.

— Monday, January 23, 2017 —

The Trump rally, which lost some steam, gained momentum early in the week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index finished January 19, the day before the inauguration, with its biggest election-to-inauguration gain since Bill... continue

Around the world in a few paragraphs…

— Tuesday, January 17, 2017 —

The post-election adrenaline rush may be over in the United States. Barron’s reported: “The new year began with high hopes, with the bulls expecting the rally that began with Donald J. Trump’s election victory to continue into 2017... continue

…and, they’re off!

— Monday, January 9, 2017 —

Bullish sentiment helped world equity markets get off to a fast start last week. Just name a country or region – developed markets, emerging markets, the United States, Latin America, Asia, Europe, the United Kingdom – and it’s likely the area’s benchmark... continue

What a difference a year makes!

— Tuesday, January 3, 2017 —

At the start of 2016, investors were rather pessimistic and risk averse, preferring bonds to stocks. By the end of the year, they were quite optimistic and preferred stocks to bonds. In between, markets traveled a bumpy road. During January of last... continue

Missed it by that much…

— Tuesday, December 27, 2016 —

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) got within 13 points of 20,000 last Tuesday. It finished the week about 90 points below the vaunted milestone. “The Dow has gained nearly 10 percent since the end of October, more than double its 4.1 percent rise... continue

The Federal Reserve put a hitch in the markets’ giddy-up last week.

— Wednesday, December 21, 2016 —

It wasn’t the Fed’s second interest rate hike in a decade that caused markets to stumble. December’s rate hike was old news before it happened. In mid-December, Reuters reported Fed funds futures indicated... continue

“Fra-gee-lay” …it must be Italian!

— Monday, December 12, 2016 —

Mom: I think that says "fragile," honey. Dad: Oh, yeah. This holiday season, investors’ enthusiasm for U.S. stocks has rivaled old man Parker’s passion for his major-award leg lamp in ‘A Christmas Story.’ Last week, three major U.S... continue

Flirting with higher interest rates.

— Monday, December 5, 2016 —

Last week, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds rose to a 17-month high of 2.44 percent, reported The Wall Street Journal, before retreating to finish the week at about 2.4 percent. As we’ve mentioned previously, some experts suspect the bull... continue

It’s a myth!

— Monday, November 28, 2016 —

According to WebMD, the amino acid L-Tryptophan is not responsible for Americans’ post-Thanksgiving food coma. The real culprit is overeating. So, last week’s post-feast sleepiness can be blamed on big appetites. Investors also indulged their appetite for risk... continue

This time it’s the end. Really. Possibly.

— Monday, November 21, 2016 —

It seems like experts have been forecasting the end of the bull market in bonds for years – and they have been doing so. In July 2010, bond guru Bill Gross predicted the 28-year bull market in bonds was near an end and, as interest rates... continue

Surprise!

— Monday, November 14, 2016 —

Markets were remarkably sanguine following the election of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States. There was a moment of panic. As election results rolled in on Tuesday, Gold prices rose and Treasury yields fell, as investors sought safe havens. Dow... continue

Markets hate uncertainty

— Monday, November 7, 2016 —

... and that may create opportunities. Last week, investors experienced another bout of election jitters, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index fell for the ninth straight session. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), a.k.a. the fear gauge, which... continue

It’s almost over…

— Monday, October 31, 2016 —

During July 2016, Pew Research reported almost 60 percent of Americans were suffering from election fatigue. They weren’t uninterested in the election. They were just worn out by never-ending news coverage that focused on candidates’ comments, personal lives... continue

"Verrrry interesting."

— Monday, October 24, 2016 —

Arte Johnson’s catch phrase from Rowan & Martin’s Laugh-In may not have described U.S. stock markets last week, but there were some interesting economic, cyber-security, and consumer developments around the world. Major U.S. stock indices finished the... continue

‘Tis the season!

— Monday, October 17, 2016 —

Third quarter earnings season, that is. Every quarter, companies report earnings to let investors know how profitable the companies were during the quarter. When profits grow, a company’s share price may move higher. When profits decline, a company’s share... continue

Was it good news or wasn’t it?

— Monday, October 10, 2016 —

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked higher last week. The September jobs report showed the United States added 156,000 new jobs in September. That was 16,000 fewer than economists were expecting and 11,000 fewer than were added in August, according to... continue

Markets were relatively calm...

— Monday, October 3, 2016 —

...during the third quarter of 2016, yet they delivered some attractive returns overall. In the United States, all three major U.S. indices posted record highs twice during a single 7-day period in August, reported CNBC.com. The Standard & Poor’s... continue

As expected…

— Monday, September 26, 2016 —

The U.S. Federal Reserve left rates unchanged last week and markets celebrated. Across the globe, national stock market indices finished the week higher. In the United States, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and NASDAQ gained more than 1 percent. Not everyone was... continue

If it’s not one thing, it may be another.

— Monday, September 19, 2016 —

Economic data released last week will factor into this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision on whether to push interest rates higher in the United States. Some of the August data supports the idea economic growth was soft... continue

Blame it on the central banks!

— Monday, September 12, 2016 —

After 44 consecutive sleepy, summer days when Barron’s reported the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index opened and closed without a 1 percent move in either direction, the index tumbled last week – and so did indices in other markets around the world... continue

"We can never know about the days to come...

— Tuesday, September 6, 2016 —

...but we think about them anyway…” --Carly Simon Economists and market analysts have been thinking a lot about the Federal Reserve and the actions it may take before the end of 2016. Friday’s employment numbers helped fan the... continue

Attention investors:

— Monday, August 29, 2016 —

U.S. interest rates may be moving up and it might happen this year. During last Friday’s speech at the Federal Reserve’s annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen signaled that a rate hike is probably coming but, as... continue

"...who will bring home Olympic gold. "

— Monday, August 22, 2016 —

Last week, Wall Street was speculating about monetary policy with the enthusiasm of commentators trying to predict who will bring home Olympic gold. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to introduce another rate hike before the... continue

How do you measure stock market valuation?

— Monday, August 15, 2016 —

If you look at conventional measures – like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios – then U.S. stock markets appear to be pricey. The Wall Street Journal reported trailing 12-month P/E ratios are high when compared to 10-year averages. High... continue

It’s déjà vu all over again!

— Monday, August 8, 2016 —

The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index, also known as the VIX, tracks the prices of options on the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index. Since options often are used to hedge portfolio risk, the VIX is considered to be a... continue

Here’s a brain tickler for you:

— Monday, August 1, 2016 —

In July 2016, there were four. In June 2016, there were 10. Since 2008, there have been 673! What are they? If you guessed central bank rate cuts, you are on the money. Financial Times reported: “In the eight years since the collapse of Lehman... continue

Like a cool breeze on a hot day...

— Monday, July 25, 2016 —

...the post-Brexit market rally has soothed investors. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), also known as the fear gauge, fell significantly during the past few weeks, according to CNBC.com. The VIX measures investors’ concerns about future... continue

“Start your engines” ...

— Monday, July 18, 2016 —

...was not in the Department of Labor (DOL)’s June Employment Report Summary, but it may as well have been. A positive jobs report revved investor optimism and sent U.S. stock markets sprinting higher last week. Job growth was strong in June with 287,000 new... continue

When the yield on 10-year Treasuries finished last week...

— Monday, July 11, 2016 —

...at 1.37 percent, a record closing low, Barron’s called it a Kübler-Ross rally. Elizabeth Kübler-Ross was a Swiss psychiatrist whose research identified the five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression... continue

Second quarter ended with a spectacular finale of Brexit-inspired market volatility.

— Tuesday, July 5, 2016 —

Investors typically welcome sharp market movements with about the same level of enthusiasm that canines show for fireworks. However, recent market agitations highlighted a key tenet of investing... continue

SURPRISE! Britain is leaving the European Union (EU) after 40 years of membership.

— Monday, June 27, 2016 —

Last Thursday, almost three-fourths of voters in Britain – about 30 million people, according to the BBC – cast ballots to determine whether the United Kingdom would remain in the EU. By a slim... continue

The world’s stock markets took it on the chin last week.

— Monday, June 20, 2016 —

A one-two punch was delivered with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting leading and concerns Britain will leave the European Union following. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve confirmed what many had suspected... continue

The British may be leaving. The British may be leaving.

— Monday, June 13, 2016 —

Last week, the interest rate on 10-year U.S. Treasuries dropped to levels last seen in 2013. Why, you may ask, would bond yields move lower when Federal Reserve policy is to push interest rates higher? The answer can be found... continue

Statistics means never having to say you're certain...

— Monday, June 6, 2016 —

...and that was certainly true last week. The employment report, which was released on Friday, was a bit short on jobs. Analysts had predicted employers would add about 162,000 new jobs during May, according to CNBC. Instead, a... continue

Everyone makes mistakes.

— Tuesday, May 31, 2016 —

Some people learn from them. In GMO’s March 2016 white paper, James Montier and Philip Pilkington continued to explore the Federal Reserve’s influence on the stock market. It was a process they’d begun in 2015 as they sought “…to understand why... continue

A mobile trivia game maker ...

— Monday, May 23, 2016 —

... recently assessed the playing habits of Americans and identified the most popular topics by state. As it turns out, Alabamians like college football questions, Alaskans like queries about U.S. states, Rhode Island natives prefer inquiries about... continue

When is a door not a door?

— Monday, May 16, 2016 —

The answer, of course, is: When it’s ajar. Investors and analysts were trying to find the answer to a different riddle last week: When are strong retail sales not strong retail sales? The answer is: When the retailers are department... continue

Reading economic portents can be tricky.

— Monday, May 9, 2016 —

For example, do signs that economic growth is slowing – like last week’s employment report, which was anemic relative to consensus forecasts, and first quarter’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth – mean the economy is headed for... continue

“Which would you prefer to be: a medieval monarch or a modern office-worker?”

— Monday, May 2, 2016 —

If you immediately answered medieval monarch, take a moment to ponder life without “…modern dentistry, antibiotics, air travel, smartphones, and YouTube.” Last week, The Economist used this example... continue

U.S. stock markets finished last week in heady territory.

— Monday, April 25, 2016 —

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 18,003. Its all-time closing high is 18,312. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was less than 1 percent below its intraday trading record, which was set last year. Despite strong... continue

Isn’t it remarkable that China’s growth is so consistent?

— Monday, April 18, 2016 —

A columnist from The Washington Post once opined that China “produces an astonishing number of astonishing numbers.” Last week’s GDP announcement, which helped push markets higher, may fall into that... continue

We all learned a thing or two about Panama last week.

— Monday, April 11, 2016 —

The country is not the home of the Panama hat, which is made in Ecuador. However, it is the only place in the world where you can watch the sun rise on the Pacific Ocean and set on the Atlantic Ocean. It’s also home to a lot... continue

It’s like déjà vu all over again

— Monday, April 4, 2016 —

This wasn’t the first quarter, or even the first year, that bond markets have not performed in the way Wall Street strategists have expected. During 2014, bond yields were expected to rise. They did not. During 2015, bonds were predicted to... continue

Are corporations in the United States struggling?

— Monday, March 28, 2016 —

In its cover article last week, The Economist (a British publication), suggested there is not enough competition among American companies. It pointed out: “Aggregate domestic profits are at near-record levels relative to GDP…... continue

There is ongoing debate...

— Tuesday, March 22, 2016 —

...about whether markets behave in rational ways. The efficient market hypothesis suggests it’s impossible to outperform the stock market because current share prices reflect all relevant information. In... continue

Stim-u-late mar-kets! Come on! It’s monetary easing.*

— Monday, March 14, 2016 —

The European Central Bank (ECB) was singing a tune that invigorated financial markets last week. The Wall Street Journal explained: “The fresh measures included cuts to all three of the ECB’s main interest rates, €20 billion... continue

When Mark Twain’s death was reported in the United States,

— Monday, March 7, 2016 —

...he was alive and well in London. He responded to news accounts with a note saying, “The report of my death was an exaggeration.” Last week’s jobs data suggest the same is true of reports that a recession is... continue

It wasn’t as entertaining as the Fantastic Four,

— Monday, February 29, 2016 —

The Magnificent Seven, or Ocean’s 11 but, last week, we had an opportunity to watch the Group of 20 (G20). The G20 stars finance ministers and central bankers from 19 countries and the European Union as well as representatives... continue

And the economic data says…

— Monday, February 22, 2016 —

The United States economy is doing pretty well. So well that a March rate hike by the Federal Reserve is not entirely out of the question. Barron’s described the situation like this: “Squawking pessimism can't drown out what is a very respectable... continue

Are markets suffering from excessive worry?

— Tuesday, February 16, 2016 —

Last week, markets headed south because investors were concerned about the possibility of negative interest rates in the United States – even though the U.S. Federal Reserve has been tightening monetary policy (i.e., they’ve been... continue

There was bad news and good news...

— Monday, February 8, 2016 —

... in last Friday’s unemployment report. In the negative column, fewer jobs were created in the United States than economists had predicted, and January’s jobs gains were not as strong as December’s had been. In addition, the December jobs... continue

How low can you go?

— Monday, February 1, 2016 —

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) dove into the negative interest rate rabbit hole last week when it dropped its benchmark interest rate to minus 0.1 percent. If you’ve been following Japan’s story, then you know the country has been struggling with deflation for... continue

Investors breathed a sigh of relief last week...

— Monday, January 25, 2016 —

...when U.S. stock markets recovered from a tumble toward bear market territory with the grace of a Cirque du Soleil performer. Many stock markets around the world finished the week with gains, although national indices in Europe and... continue

We all have our pet peeves,

— Tuesday, January 19, 2016 —

and if there is one thing markets do NOT like, it is uncertainty. Unfortunately, we entered 2016 with a lot of unanswered questions: How much has China’s growth slowed? How will the country’s slower growth affect companies and investments around... continue

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) started the New Year with ...

— Monday, January 11, 2016 —

...a downward currency adjustment and fireworks followed. Last week, three distinct issues affected China’s stock market. First, the PBOC’s devaluation of the yuan (a.k.a. the renminbi), along with the knowledge the... continue

Investing in U.S. stock markets during 2015

— Tuesday, January 5, 2016 —

...was a bit like riding a mechanical bull. Markets jolted up and down but, once the year ended, investors were almost where they had started. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) entered 2015 at about 2,058. It rose as high as... continue

It was a short week, but it wasn’t quiet

— Monday, December 28, 2015 —

Oil prices moved higher, according to The Wall Street Journal, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported crude-oil inventories fell unexpectedly last year. Analysts had predicted oil supplies would rise. One expert cited by... continue

After a level of hype ...

— Monday, December 21, 2015 —

...that would have exhausted even the most dedicated Star Wars fans, the Federal Reserve finally began to tighten monetary policy last week, raising the funds rate from 0.25 percent to 0.50 percent. Although financial markets appeared sanguine when the rate... continue

It’s not like it’s a surprise!

— Monday, December 14, 2015 —

Last week, investors didn’t appear to be thrilled with the possibility the Federal Reserve might raise rates this week. They also weren’t too impressed by another drop in oil prices. There was red ink everywhere as markets from Australia to Hong... continue

Anyone looking at U.S. stock market performance last week...

— Monday, December 7, 2015 —

...might assume it was a pretty quiet week. They would be wrong. It was a very bouncy week. U.S. stock markets moved lower on Monday, rebounded on Tuesday, and then appeared to suffer a one-two punch mid-week that knocked... continue

American markets were relatively quiet during Thanksgiving week ...

— Monday, November 30, 2015 —

...but there were fireworks in China’s markets. Late in the week, media outlets reported the China Securities Regulatory Commission was conducting inquiries into several securities firms as part of an... continue

Financial markets were remarkably calm last week.

— Monday, November 23, 2015 —

Many stock markets in the United States, Europe, and Asia moved higher as investors chose to focus their attention on the minutes of the October 27-28, 2015 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which were released on... continue

Attacks on Paris by the Islamic State were an appalling exclamation point ...

— Monday, November 16, 2015 —

...at the end of a difficult week for stock markets. World stock markets tumbled as investors braced for a possible rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December. Many national indices across the United... continue

And, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said…

— Monday, November 9, 2015 —

U.S. job growth surpassed expectations in October. About 271,000 jobs were created across diverse industries: professional and business services, health care, retail, construction, and others. That was a significantly higher number... continue

Keep your eyes on the data.

— Monday, November 2, 2015 —

There was much to be said for U.S. stock markets’ performance during October. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index delivered their best monthly performance in four years, according to Barron’s. Any celebration... continue

Central banks were at it again – and markets loved it.

— Monday, October 26, 2015 —

Last week, European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi surprised markets when he indicated the ECB’s governing council was considering cutting interest rates and engaging in another round of quantitative easing. The... continue

How quickly emotions have changed since August.

— Tuesday, October 20, 2015 —

Worry? Angst? It’s already priced into the markets, according to some experts. Last week, Barron’s published the results of its Big Money Poll, a biannual survey of professional investors and money managers. A majority of those... continue

They’re investors. They’re allowed to change their minds.

— Monday, October 12, 2015 —

Just a few weeks ago, on September 17, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to leave the fed funds rate unchanged. In part, this was because, “Recent global economic and financial developments may... continue

Well, third quarter was a humdinger.

— Monday, October 5, 2015 —

It began with the first International Monetary Fund (IMF) default by a developed country (Greece) and finished with Hurricane Joaquin possibly headed toward the east coast. In between, China’s stock market tumbled, the Federal Reserve tried to... continue

Oh, the uncertainty!

— Monday, September 28, 2015 —

Investors are keeping one eye on the Federal Reserve and the other on politicians trying to determine what may happen during the last quarter of the year. The Fed, which is the central bank of the United States, is responsible for conducting monetary policy... continue

As Tom Petty often sang, “The waiting is the hardest part.”

— Monday, September 21, 2015 —

Whether it’s waiting for college acceptance letters, medical test results, employment offers, or Federal Reserve monetary policy changes, waiting can produce a lot of anxiety. A 2012 research paper written by Associate... continue

The market is as streaky as a slice of bacon.

— Monday, September 14, 2015 —

U.S. stock markets have been sliding higher. They’ve been sliding lower. Barron’s reported the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has tumbled from gains to losses and back again for 10 weeks in a row. The Dow Jones Industrial Index has... continue

Who’s the culprit?

— Tuesday, September 8, 2015 —

Speculating on who or what is to blame for recent market weakness is a popular pastime right now. Last week, Barron’s said the search for someone to blame is a lot like a game of Clue. So far, the most common conclusions are “the People's Bank of China with... continue

U.S. stock markets finished last week higher

— Monday, August 31, 2015 —

...than they started it, but the five-day ride was awfully bumpy. Concerns about China’s slowing growth, shifting currency valuations, and falling stock markets, coupled with uncertainty about the Federal Reserve’s next monetary... continue

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost about 6 percent last week.

— Monday, August 24, 2015 —

That puts the benchmark index about 10 percent below its record high on May 19, 2015, according to Barron’s. A drop of that magnitude from a new high may be a correction – a brief but jarring drop in value that... continue

Stock markets in the United States got off to a good start last week...

— Monday, August 17, 2015 —

... heading higher before stumbling over China’s currency news. China, which has one of the world’s largest and fastest growing economies, is experiencing a slowdown in economic growth. The Economist... continue

Back to school…back to higher interest rates?

— Monday, August 10, 2015 —

After a solid July jobs report arrived on Friday – 215,000 new jobs were created and unemployment remained at 5.3 percent – analysts were pretty confident there would be ample support for a Federal Reserve rate increase (a.k.a... continue

The market is flat.

— Monday, August 3, 2015 —

That’s right. It’s a rare occurrence – something that has happened just 12 times since 1926, according to Fortune – but the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) has remained in a narrow trading range for seven months. For every sector that has... continue

There was a spate of bad news last week...

— Monday, July 27, 2015 —

...and it drove U.S. markets lower. China’s wild ride isn’t over yet. The Purchasing Managers’ Index, a private measure of Chinese manufacturing, came in below expectations at 48.2, according to BloombergBusiness. Results below 50... continue

Investors around the world breathed a sigh of relief last week.

— Monday, July 20, 2015 —

It wafted many markets higher. The NASDAQ jumped by more than 4 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index gained 2.4 percent. France’s national benchmark index rose 4.5 percent, Germany’s was up 3.2 percent... continue

It’s a cautionary tale…

— Monday, July 13, 2015 —

Many Chinese investors were so optimistic about the prospects for Chinese stock markets they bought on margin, meaning they borrowed money to buy stocks. Borrowing to invest has been so popular that the amount of margin loans doubled in just six months to... continue

It's been a wild, wild quarter

— Monday, July 6, 2015 —

In early April, stock markets were doing so well (14 of 47 national benchmark indices hit all-time highs) that global market capitalization — the value of stocks trading on exchanges throughout the world — pushed past $70 trillion, according to... continue

Not quite as popular as Branjelina and Kimye,

— Monday, June 29, 2015 —

‘Grexit’ (short for Greek Exit) has gained traction as a nickname during the past few months. The British press appropriated a variation, Brexit, when they discovered that the Bank of England was researching the potential risks of... continue

You’re probably familiar with the seven-year itch.

— Monday, June 22, 2015 —

Not the movie with Marilyn Monroe, but the concept that relationships can lose their luster after seven years. That may be what happened last week in China. Investors got itchy and the Chinese stock market suffered its worst week... continue

Sir John Templeton once said:

— Monday, June 15, 2015 —

The Markets Sir John Templeton once said: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.” If he was right, investor sentiment seems to support the idea the bull market may be around for a while... continue

If it looks like a bond, and it acts like a bond…

— Monday, June 8, 2015 —

…oh…that’s the problem. Government bonds aren’t acting the way investors expect. Last week, 10-year U.S. Treasuries – which, typically, are thought to be safe and stable investments – suffered the biggest one-week sell... continue

Is it possible to have an economic optical illusion?

— Monday, June 1, 2015 —

On Friday, the Commerce Department reported the U.S. economy contracted at an annualized rate of 0.7 percent during the first quarter of 2015. The Federal Reserve sees things slightly differently. Previously, the Commerce... continue

You could have set the events of last week to music.

— Monday, May 25, 2015 —

Should they stay or should they go? Last week, the Bank of England (BOE), Britain’s central bank, inadvertently sent a memo describing how staffers should handle press inquiries about its confidential research into the... continue

The U.S. Treasury market is a bit like ...

— Monday, May 18, 2015 —

... a lake in the midst of a drought. All the action – fish, frogs, crawdads, and such – that was once hidden in the depths has become a lot more visible as the water shallows. For decades, traders and investors have turned to U.S... continue

Government bonds have gone wild!

— Monday, May 11, 2015 —

Sure, you might expect high-yield bonds to act unpredictably from time to time. That’s why they’re high-yield bonds. They don’t receive investment-grade ratings – BBB through AAA – from leading credit rating agencies because they’re not... continue

Stock markets tipped into the red last week.

— Monday, May 4, 2015 —

Major indices in the United States and elsewhere dipped lower as U.S. economic growth came in below expectations. The Commerce Department reported gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.2 percent annualized during the first quarter... continue

Remember the dot-com bubble?

— Monday, April 27, 2015 —

If so, you’ll appreciate this week’s notable event: The NASDAQ Composite Index, which includes a fair number of technology stocks, transcended its previous high (set in March 2000). Share values in the tech sector gained 4 percent last week... continue

It’s a topsy-turvy world.

— Monday, April 20, 2015 —

In the United States, during the last quarter of 2014, about seven million (13 percent) of all mortgaged residential properties were underwater, meaning the mortgage loan amount was at least 25 percent higher than the estimated market value of the... continue

How much is one trillion?

— Monday, April 13, 2015 —

If you waited one trillion seconds, it would take 31,688 years. If you had a trillion dollars, and spent $10 million a day, it would take 273 years to go broke. If you taped $100 bills end-to-end, you could wrap the earth 41 times with $1 trillion... continue

The global economy performed a bit like a Rube Goldberg contraption ...

— Monday, April 6, 2015 —

...during the first quarter of 2015, although it’s doubtful many countries found humor as economic, financial, and political events triggered other economic, financial, and political events across the world. ... continue

So, when is the Federal Reserve going to increase the rate for overnight borrowing?

— Monday, March 30, 2015 —

It’s a question that has plagued bond investors throughout the first quarter of 2015. In January, 10-year Treasury yields fell as low as 1.6 percent. Early in March, they rose to about 2.2 percent... continue

Financial markets gave the Federal Reserve a standing ovation last week.

— Monday, March 23, 2015 —

At least, that was Barron’s interpretation. What did the Fed do to deserve it? “…the Fed did what everyone expected, signaling that it could raise interest rates at any meeting starting in June. Yet... continue

Franklin D. Roosevelt’s first inaugural address...

— Monday, March 16, 2015 —

...was delivered in 1933 in the midst of the Great Depression. He said, “This great Nation will endure as it has endured, will revive and will prosper. So, first of all, let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to... continue

If You Give a Mouse a Cookie

— Monday, March 9, 2015 —

If you looked at last week from the perspective of the children’s book, If You Give a Mouse a Cookie, it might have gone like this: If you give the United States a positive employment report, Investors are going to ask whether interest rates will... continue

An Alice in Wonderland Week

— Monday, March 2, 2015 —

“Well, I never heard it before,” said the Mock Turtle; “but it sounds uncommon nonsense.” It was an Alice in Wonderland week. European countries, companies, and entrepreneurs were getting paid to borrow money, and ordinary Joes with money in... continue

It was all Greek to investors.

— Tuesday, February 24, 2015 —

Last Thursday, things weren’t looking so good for Greece. Barron’s explained: “…Germany scotched Greece’s request for a six-month extension to its existing aid package. Athens had sought more time to renegotiate the Draconian austerity... continue

Animal Spirits

— Monday, February 16, 2015 —

Animal spirits were improving last week, according to Barron’s. The idea of animal spirits was introduced to the dismal science (a.k.a. economics) in the late1930s, courtesy of John Maynard Keynes. In The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (a... continue

What’s in an employment report?

— Monday, February 9, 2015 —

Last week, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Employment Situation Summary was full of encouraging data. Employment numbers for last November and December were revised higher which made 2014 the strongest year for job growth since 1999. However... continue

It’s true.

— Monday, February 2, 2015 —

January did not turn out to be the best month for U.S. stock markets. At the end of the month, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) was down about 3.1 percent. Before you start listening to pithy observations – the saying ‘as goes January, so goes the year’... continue

Reality television starring central bankers?

— Monday, January 26, 2015 —

There may be potential for a reality television program starring central bankers and the making of economic policy. It could be called, ‘The Real Central Bankers of the European Economic Community.’ Just imagine the last two... continue

Central banks have been full of surprises lately,

— Wednesday, January 21, 2015 —

but not too many people saw this one coming. For aficionados of the board game Clue, here’s the gist of it: Thomas Jordan did it in Switzerland with monetary policy. Last week, Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan... continue

You may be enjoying the economic benefits of gas prices around two dollars a gallon,

— Monday, January 12, 2015 —

but last week investors were skeptical about the effect of low, low oil prices on companies’ performance during 2015. For the first time since the financial crisis, the price of crude oil... continue

“…bubbling crude; oil that is, black gold, Texas tea.”

— Monday, January 5, 2015 —

The decline in oil prices accelerated during the fourth quarter of 2014. The main culprit was a supply and demand imbalance. Increased production in the United States, which is currently the biggest oil producer in the world, means... continue

Geopolitics and monetary policy and deflation! Oh my!

— Monday, December 22, 2014 —

It was a wild, wild week. First, the Russian central bank announced a massive rate hike and the country’s main deposit rate rose from 10.5 percent to 17 percent. The move was the largest single increase in Russian rates... continue

Ouch! It was no fun to be an investor last week.

— Monday, December 15, 2014 —

The week prior, a commentary in The Wall Street Journal’s blog, MoneyBeat, offered this insight: “Falling oil prices are thought to be good for stocks because they stimulate consumer spending and hold down inflation. The lower... continue

In the United States, it was more of the same ole, same ole…

— Monday, December 8, 2014 —

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Standard & Poor’s 500 closed at record highs for the 34th time and 49th time this year, respectively. The impetus last week was a jobs report that far exceeded expectations. For the... continue

Your Favorite Stock Market?

— Monday, December 1, 2014 —

If investors around the world were voting on their favorite stock market, there is little doubt U.S. markets would finish near the top. Barron’s explained, “For the past three years, Wall Street has been... continue

Pioneer. Trendsetter. Trailblazer.

— Monday, November 24, 2014 —

Whatever term you decide to use, there’s no debate about the fact central banks around the world are taking a page or two from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s playbook. The Fed may have ended quantitative easing (QE) – its program of buying... continue

Is All This Stock Market Optimism a Red Flag?

— Monday, November 17, 2014 —

Contrarians – investors who bet against prevailing market trends – were probably nodding along as they read that headline in The Wall Street Journal back on January 18, 2013. The Journal cited the American Association of... continue

Is It a Melt-Up?

— Monday, November 10, 2014 —

You’re familiar with the word melt. Ice cream melts. Snow melts. You may have seen someone melt down (or have done it yourself). Right now, markets may be experiencing a melt-up, according to Barron’s. Melt-up is a counterintuitive term which describes a... continue

Are Central Banks Throwing a Progressive Party?

— Monday, November 3, 2014 —

You know, the kind of party where folks travel from house to house feasting and drinking and enjoying the proffered hospitality. For years pundits have speculated about what will happen to the U.S. stock market party when the spiked... continue

So, Why Did Markets Bounce?

— Monday, October 27, 2014 —

After a week that left investors wondering what’s next – much like fishermen on a lake as the wind kicks up and the water gets choppy – the wind settled and the fish started biting. U.S. stock markets posted their best weekly returns in almost two... continue

A Little Early for Halloween

— Monday, October 20, 2014 —

It’s a little early for Halloween, but markets sure got spooked last week. After a 21-month ride to mid-September highs, stock markets jolted and shook investors last week like the most dramatic and scream-inducing rollercoaster at an amusement... continue

Keep Calm and Carry On

— Monday, October 13, 2014 —

The slogan comes from a United Kingdom Ministry of Information propaganda poster designed to boost morale if the United Kingdom was invaded during World War II. Despite its current popularity, the poster was never distributed. The slogan offers some sound... continue

“Life is fine! Fine as wine! Life is fine!”

— Monday, October 6, 2014 —

During the third quarter of 2014, U.S. investors remained as optimistic as the narrator in Langston Hughes’ poem, Life Is Fine. All major U.S. indices pushed higher during the quarter despite mixed economic signals, monetary policy... continue

Volatility May Be the Name of the Game

— Monday, September 29, 2014 —

Last week offered some lessons in career management, economics, and investor impulse, among other things. Derek Jeter, the well-loved Yankees shortstop, finished the final home game of his career by smacking a game-winning hit. Throughout his last... continue